Fourth Down Data
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USF

South Florida

BullsBalanced
American Conference1-8#125 (-9.88)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

3· FOverall
Offense
11· FRating
15· DPer play
42· CConsistency
32· DBig plays
Defense
8· FRating
26· DPer play
29· DConsistency
Situational
26· DRed-zone O
16· DRed-zone D
14· F3rd down O
18· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.047
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.026
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.117
Defensive EPA/play
+0.080
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.3%
Def Success Rate
48.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.196
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.136
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.65

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-2.29
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.48
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.37
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.24
own return game
Return Defense
-1.42
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#125
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#105
market 20 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where South Florida ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
9th
Opp-adjusted defense
20th
Offensive EPA/play
15th
Defensive EPA/play
26th
Offensive success rate
48th
Explosiveness
33th
Defensive havoc
2th
Points per drive
17th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Western Kentucky2026OA -0.011 / -0.038similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, passing offense4182Middle Tennessee2020OA -0.016 / -0.033similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, run defense3713New Mexico State2018OA -0.133 / -0.120similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, turnover rate3584Boston College2025OA -0.019 / -0.094similar: offensive success rate, rushing offense, havoc rate3565UNLV2020OA -0.027 / -0.044similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate348

2020 Schedule & Results

9 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
2vs The Citadel27-6W----
3@ Notre Dame0-52L+25.5L48O
5@ Cincinnati7-28L+21.5W46U
6vs East Carolina24-44L-4.5L55O
7@ Temple37-39L+10.5W54.5O
8vs Tulsa13-42L----
10@ Memphis33-34L+18.0W64.5O
11@ Houston21-56L+14.5L58.5O
13vs UCF46-58L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-4
50.0%
O/U Record
7-1
87.5%
Straight Up
1-8
11.1%
Home ATS1-2
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS4-3
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off10thRush Off38thRed Zone Off27th3rd Down Off14thPass Def14thRush Def65thRed Zone Def16th3rd Down Def18th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.09116th+0.04444th
Red Zone-0.09727th+0.16716th
Third Down-0.18214th+0.27618th
No Garbage Time-0.08918th+0.09123th
First Half-0.14812th+0.06437th
Second Half-0.03834th+0.01952th
Early Downs-0.02940th-0.02665th
Passing Downs-0.19710th+0.18114th
Standard Downs-0.02838th-0.02065th
Goal to Go-0.08533th+0.28116th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.2%Rush 51.8%
Havoc/Game
9.3
Havoc Rate
12.2%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
13.2
Yards/Game
365.3
Pts/Drive
1.65
3rd Down%
30.6%
3&Out%
20.8%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 9 games — South Florida vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSouth FloridaOpponents
Scoring
Points208359
Points / Game23.139.9
First Downs
Total188210
Rushing7699
Passing9797
Penalty1514
Rushing
Attempts337386
Yards1,3391,911
Yards / Carry4.05.0
Yards / Game148.8212.3
Touchdowns1120
Passing
Attempts313270
Completions187164
Completion %59.7%60.7%
Yards1,9492,062
Yards / Attempt6.27.6
Touchdowns1221
Interceptions610
Passer Rating120.87143.15
Total Offense
Plays650656
Yards3,2883,973
Yards / Play5.16.1
Yards / Game365.3441.4
Punt Returns
Returns819
Yards71288
Average8.915.2
Touchdowns12
Kickoff Returns
Returns3420
Yards710394
Average20.919.7
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts4135
Yards1,6061,405
Average39.240.1
Interception Returns
Returns106
Yards22047
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles1310
Lost113
Penalties
Penalties4850
Yards436487
Yards / Game48.454.1
Time of Possession
Per Game28:2731:33
Third Downs
Attempts124142
Conversions3871
Conversion %30.6%50.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2415
Conversions711
Conversion %29.2%73.3%
Red Zone
Trips3242
Scores (TD + FG)2536
Score %78.1%85.7%
Touchdowns2128
TD %65.6%66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1317
Made911
Pct69.2%64.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2445
Made2344
Pct95.8%97.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts22
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →