Fourth Down Data
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ULM

UL Monroe

WarhawksBalanced
Sun Belt Conference4-8#132 (-9.66)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

3· FOverall
Offense
39· DRating
56· CPer play
31· DConsistency
73· BBig plays
Defense
10· FRating
21· DPer play
18· DConsistency
Situational
51· CRed-zone O
26· DRed-zone D
71· B3rd down O
14· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.020
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.119
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.013
Defensive EPA/play
+0.062
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.6%
Def Success Rate
48.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.049
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.135
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.94

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-4.83
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.87
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.40
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.84
own return game
Return Defense
-2.52
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#132
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#125
market 7 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 57 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UL Monroe ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
56th
Opp-adjusted defense
10th
Offensive EPA/play
57th
Defensive EPA/play
21th
Offensive success rate
30th
Explosiveness
74th
Defensive havoc
14th
Points per drive
38th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Old Dominion2018OA -0.024 / -0.145similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, defensive success rate3702Kansas2019OA +0.049 / -0.077similar: takeaway rate, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3683Michigan State2025OA +0.075 / -0.070similar: TD drive rate, run defense, pass defense3684Mississippi State2024OA +0.011 / -0.053similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, run defense3655Houston2023OA +0.020 / -0.059similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, defensive success rate358

2022 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Texas10-52L+37.5L64.5U
2vs Nicholls State35-7W-4.5W61.5U
3@ Alabama7-63L+49.5L61.5O
4vs Louisiana21-17W+9.0W51U
5@ Arkansas State28-45L+7.0L59O
6vs Coastal Carolina21-28L+12.5W58U
7@ South Alabama34-41L+17.0W51.5O
8@ Army24-48L+6.5L55.5O
10vs Texas State31-30W-1.0P52O
11@ Georgia State31-28W+13.5W59P
12@ Troy16-34L+15.0L48O
13vs Southern Miss10-20L+3.5L51U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-6-1
45.5%
O/U Record
6-5-1
54.5%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-1
Away ATS2-5
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS4-6
Last 5 ATS
LPWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off35thRush Off70thRed Zone Off51th3rd Down Off72thPass Def16thRush Def32thRed Zone Def27th3rd Down Def14th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.00351th+0.05223th
Red Zone+0.01351th+0.11727th
Third Down+0.19272th+0.30714th
No Garbage Time-0.01350th+0.06919th
First Half+0.02156th+0.12410th
Second Half-0.02946th-0.01746th
Early Downs+0.08286th+0.00937th
Passing Downs-0.07735th+0.11916th
Standard Downs+0.04170th+0.01432th
Goal to Go-0.17028th-0.00646th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.3%Rush 55.7%
Havoc/Game
10.7
Havoc Rate
14.8%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
14.2
Yards/Game
325.9
Pts/Drive
1.94
3rd Down%
40.1%
3&Out%
24.2%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 12 games — UL Monroe vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUL MonroeOpponents
Scoring
Points268413
Points / Game22.334.4
First Downs
Total213258
Rushing87117
Passing100127
Penalty2614
Rushing
Attempts418482
Yards1,4472,337
Yards / Carry3.54.8
Yards / Game120.6194.8
Touchdowns1629
Passing
Attempts332346
Completions221230
Completion %66.6%66.5%
Yards2,4642,792
Yards / Attempt7.48.1
Touchdowns1617
Interceptions76
Passer Rating140.60147.00
Total Offense
Plays750828
Yards3,9115,129
Yards / Play5.26.2
Yards / Game325.9427.4
Punt Returns
Returns730
Yards29521
Average4.117.4
Touchdowns13
Kickoff Returns
Returns3022
Yards511649
Average17.029.5
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6644
Yards2,7621,603
Average41.836.4
Interception Returns
Returns67
Yards53163
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles1414
Lost82
Penalties
Penalties5983
Yards537811
Yards / Game44.867.6
Time of Possession
Per Game29:2930:05
Third Downs
Attempts167171
Conversions6774
Conversion %40.1%43.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1428
Conversions513
Conversion %35.7%46.4%
Red Zone
Trips3354
Scores (TD + FG)2947
Score %87.9%87.0%
Touchdowns2136
TD %63.6%66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1117
Made1014
Pct90.9%82.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3253
Made3253
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts20
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →