Fourth Down Data
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NEB

Nebraska

CornhuskersBalanced
Big Ten Conference4-8#67 (+1.51)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

50· COverall
Offense
79· BRating
23· DPer play
28· DConsistency
36· DBig plays
Defense
21· DRating
18· DPer play
10· FConsistency
Situational
3· FRed-zone O
13· FRed-zone D
31· D3rd down O
31· D3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.058
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.086
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.095
Defensive EPA/play
+0.085
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.7%
Def Success Rate
50.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.180
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.058
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.84

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.85
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.58
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.28
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.09
own return game
Return Defense
-0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#67
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#25
recruiting 42 spots higher
19 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Nebraska ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
71th
Opp-adjusted defense
21th
Offensive EPA/play
23th
Defensive EPA/play
18th
Offensive success rate
41th
Explosiveness
37th
Defensive havoc
4th
Points per drive
29th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UCLA2018OA +0.036 / -0.086similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA4312Kansas2019OA +0.049 / -0.077similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3793New Mexico State2019OA -0.052 / -0.096similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, run defense3664Hawai'i2026OA -0.078 / -0.040similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3655Charlotte2024OA -0.021 / -0.045similar: offensive EPA, run defense, defensive EPA361

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Arkansas State43-36W-14.5L51.5O
2@ Oregon35-42L+10.5W67O
3vs Northern Illinois17-21L-10.5L57U
4vs Rutgers27-17W-12.5L48U
5@ Illinois28-6W-6.0W47U
6vs Wisconsin17-38L+12.5L47O
7vs Ohio State14-56L+23.5L57.5O
9@ Purdue25-24W+4.0W54.5U
10vs Northwestern24-31L-1.0L55P
11@ Minnesota21-54L--47.5O
12@ Penn State44-56L+27.0W58.5O
13vs Iowa14-56L+4.5L50.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-7
36.4%
O/U Record
7-4-1
63.6%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS0-7
Away ATS4-0
Favorite ATS1-4
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
WLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off47thRush Off49thRed Zone Off3th3rd Down Off31thPass Def41thRush Def10thRed Zone Def13th3rd Down Def31th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.03545th+0.07819th
Red Zone-0.3773th+0.18313th
Third Down-0.11931th+0.07931th
No Garbage Time-0.08428th+0.08020th
First Half-0.06935th+0.1974th
Second Half-0.00554th-0.06563th
Early Downs-0.05741th+0.10811th
Passing Downs-0.03247th+0.00741th
Standard Downs-0.03749th+0.10510th
Goal to Go-0.15828th+0.24612th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 55.5%Rush 44.5%
Havoc/Game
8.3
Havoc Rate
11.8%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
12.8
Yards/Game
385.0
Pts/Drive
1.84
3rd Down%
37.6%
3&Out%
26.4%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — Nebraska vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNebraskaOpponents
Scoring
Points309437
Points / Game25.836.4
First Downs
Total236279
Rushing73131
Passing145122
Penalty1826
Rushing
Attempts368463
Yards1,2902,577
Yards / Carry3.55.6
Yards / Game107.5214.8
Touchdowns1333
Passing
Attempts459363
Completions265234
Completion %57.7%64.5%
Yards3,3302,657
Yards / Attempt7.37.3
Touchdowns2319
Interceptions179
Passer Rating127.80138.26
Total Offense
Plays827826
Yards4,6205,234
Yards / Play5.66.3
Yards / Game385.0436.2
Punt Returns
Returns1511
Yards93111
Average6.210.1
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns3831
Yards859726
Average22.623.4
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts5952
Yards2,4862,062
Average42.139.7
Interception Returns
Returns917
Yards138376
Touchdowns24
Fumbles
Fumbles1217
Lost23
Penalties
Penalties7572
Yards728638
Yards / Game60.753.2
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3629:24
Third Downs
Attempts181144
Conversions6862
Conversion %37.6%43.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2714
Conversions137
Conversion %48.1%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips4557
Scores (TD + FG)3450
Score %75.6%87.7%
Touchdowns2341
TD %51.1%71.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1413
Made1210
Pct85.7%76.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3757
Made3757
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →