Fourth Down Data
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MTSU

Middle Tennessee

Blue RaidersBalanced
Conference USA3-9#132 (-12.23)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

2· FOverall
Offense
9· FRating
11· FPer play
11· FConsistency
8· FBig plays
Defense
1· FRating
5· FPer play
2· FConsistency
Situational
4· FRed-zone O
25· DRed-zone D
30· D3rd down O
1· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.043
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.072
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.124
Defensive EPA/play
+0.142
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.4%
Def Success Rate
50.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.266
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.079
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.44

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.42
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.12
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.63
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.13
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#132
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#119
market 13 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
recruiting 52 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Middle Tennessee ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
13th
Opp-adjusted defense
3th
Offensive EPA/play
11th
Defensive EPA/play
5th
Offensive success rate
31th
Explosiveness
8th
Defensive havoc
14th
Points per drive
7th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida International2021OA -0.073 / -0.185similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, takeaway rate3972UNLV2020OA -0.027 / -0.044similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, havoc rate3683Boston College2025OA -0.019 / -0.094similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense3654Purdue2024OA -0.029 / -0.062similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, offensive EPA3615Colorado2022OA -0.222 / -0.093similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, pass defense354

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Tennessee Tech32-25W-23.5L52.5O
2@ Ole Miss3-52L+40.5L62.5U
3vs Western Kentucky21-49L+7.0L54.5O
4vs Duke17-45L+14.5L51O
5@ Memphis7-24L+25.5W61.5U
7@ Louisiana Tech21-48L-9.0P49.5U
8vs Kennesaw State14-5W+20.5L63.5U
9@ Jacksonville State20-42L----
10@ UTEP20-13W+3.0W51.5U
11vs Liberty17-37L+11.0L54P
13vs New Mexico State21-36L-3.5L52O
14@ Florida International24-35L+9.0L52O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
2-9-1
18.2%
O/U Record
6-5-1
54.5%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS0-5
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS0-2
Underdog ATS2-7
Last 5 ATS
LWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off11thRush Off53thRed Zone Off4th3rd Down Off31thPass Def10thRush Def10thRed Zone Def25th3rd Down Def1th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.05323th+0.1236th
Red Zone-0.2924th+0.10925th
Third Down+0.00531th+0.4241th
No Garbage Time-0.09317th+0.1386th
First Half-0.1806th+0.1318th
Second Half+0.06770th+0.11313th
Early Downs-0.01850th+0.1107th
Passing Downs-0.17911th+0.17210th
Standard Downs+0.01353th+0.10010th
Goal to Go-0.3897th-0.02951th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 56.1%Rush 43.9%
Havoc/Game
10.4
Havoc Rate
14.9%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
10.3
Yards/Game
350.1
Pts/Drive
1.44
3rd Down%
38.5%
3&Out%
22.8%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — Middle Tennessee vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMiddle TennesseeOpponents
Scoring
Points217411
Points / Game18.134.3
First Downs
Total218281
Rushing57124
Passing137139
Penalty2418
Rushing
Attempts335465
Yards1,0682,364
Yards / Carry3.25.1
Yards / Game89.0197.0
Touchdowns1026
Passing
Attempts428343
Completions273231
Completion %63.8%67.3%
Yards3,1333,026
Yards / Attempt7.38.8
Touchdowns1627
Interceptions105
Passer Rating132.94164.51
Total Offense
Plays763808
Yards4,2015,390
Yards / Play5.56.7
Yards / Game350.1449.2
Punt Returns
Returns1219
Yards111129
Average9.36.8
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns3030
Yards530541
Average17.718.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5439
Yards2,3351,790
Average43.245.9
Interception Returns
Returns510
Yards4295
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1316
Lost95
Penalties
Penalties8866
Yards736611
Yards / Game61.350.9
Time of Possession
Per Game30:1329:47
Third Downs
Attempts161149
Conversions6272
Conversion %38.5%48.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2716
Conversions138
Conversion %48.1%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips3456
Scores (TD + FG)2548
Score %73.5%85.7%
Touchdowns1839
TD %52.9%69.6%
Field Goals
Attempts1215
Made911
Pct75.0%73.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2652
Made2650
Pct100.0%96.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →