Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
PUR

Purdue

BoilermakersBalanced
Big Ten Conference1-11#128 (-9.58)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

5· FOverall
Offense
13· FRating
14· FPer play
42· CConsistency
38· DBig plays
Defense
4· FRating
2· FPer play
1· FConsistency
Situational
15· DRed-zone O
1· FRed-zone D
10· F3rd down O
14· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.029
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.062
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.109
Defensive EPA/play
+0.162
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.2%
Def Success Rate
50.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.271
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.115
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.42

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.17
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.02
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.15
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#128
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#130
model 2 higher
Recruiting Rank
#46
recruiting 82 spots higher
8 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Purdue ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
20th
Opp-adjusted defense
6th
Offensive EPA/play
14th
Defensive EPA/play
2th
Offensive success rate
19th
Explosiveness
39th
Defensive havoc
10th
Points per drive
6th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Colorado2022OA -0.222 / -0.093similar: defensive EPA, run defense, defensive success rate3952Kent State2026OA -0.042 / -0.069similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3853Kent State2023OA -0.132 / -0.163similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, rushing offense3834Massachusetts2025OA -0.185 / -0.202similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, defensive success rate3725Utah State2020OA -0.039 / -0.053similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, run defense371

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Indiana State49-0W-33.5W48.5O
3vs Notre Dame7-66L+10.0L45.5O
4@ Oregon State21-38L+4.5L50O
5vs Nebraska10-28L+10.0L47.5U
6@ Wisconsin6-52L+13.5L45O
7@ Illinois49-50L+19.5W49O
8vs Oregon0-35L----
10vs Northwestern20-26L+1.0L46.5U
11@ Ohio State0-45L+38.0L53.5U
12vs Penn State10-49L+13.5W47.5U
13@ Michigan State17-24L----
14@ Indiana0-66L+29.0L56.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-9
25.0%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
1-11
8.3%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS2-9
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off78thRush Off0thRed Zone Off15th3rd Down Off10thPass Def5thRush Def4thRed Zone Def1th3rd Down Def14th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1298th+0.1652th
Red Zone-0.17715th+0.4121th
Third Down-0.10410th+0.27514th
No Garbage Time-0.11513th+0.1742th
First Half-0.2274th+0.2032th
Second Half-0.03029th+0.12410th
Early Downs-0.1804th+0.1224th
Passing Downs+0.11678th+0.2495th
Standard Downs-0.2620th+0.1244th
Goal to Go-0.14025th+0.3744th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.7%Rush 51.3%
Havoc/Game
10.0
Havoc Rate
14.4%
TO Margin
-1.2
Explosive/G
9.8
Yards/Game
299.3
Pts/Drive
1.42
3rd Down%
31.5%
3&Out%
27.6%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — Purdue vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatPurdueOpponents
Scoring
Points189479
Points / Game15.839.9
First Downs
Total175288
Rushing65132
Passing99136
Penalty1120
Rushing
Attempts347472
Yards1,3842,400
Yards / Carry4.05.1
Yards / Game115.3200.0
Touchdowns933
Passing
Attempts329331
Completions189218
Completion %57.4%65.9%
Yards2,2073,032
Yards / Attempt6.79.2
Touchdowns1327
Interceptions94
Passer Rating121.36167.31
Total Offense
Plays676803
Yards3,5915,432
Yards / Play5.36.8
Yards / Game299.3452.7
Punt Returns
Returns1620
Yards103137
Average6.46.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1511
Yards300217
Average20.019.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6540
Yards2,8711,730
Average44.243.3
Interception Returns
Returns49
Yards0117
Touchdowns03
Fumbles
Fumbles144
Lost101
Penalties
Penalties6662
Yards622572
Yards / Game51.847.7
Time of Possession
Per Game26:5133:09
Third Downs
Attempts146147
Conversions4671
Conversion %31.5%48.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1816
Conversions512
Conversion %27.8%75.0%
Red Zone
Trips3451
Scores (TD + FG)2647
Score %76.5%92.2%
Touchdowns1840
TD %52.9%78.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1518
Made911
Pct60.0%61.1%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2062
Made2062
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts31
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →