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KENT
Kent State
Golden FlashesRun-HeavyMid-American Conference1-11#136 (-12.10)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
0· FOverall
Offense
5· FRating
2· FPer play
4· FConsistency
4· FBig plays
Defense
2· FRating
15· DPer play
32· DConsistency
Situational
10· FRed-zone O
7· FRed-zone D
4· F3rd down O
6· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.132
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.163
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.157
Defensive EPA/play
+0.087
lower = better
Off Success Rate
39.8%
Def Success Rate
49.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
18.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.244
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.017
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.28
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.99
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.68
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.18
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.02
own return game
Return Defense
-0.10
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#136
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#133
market 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
recruiting 60 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Kent State ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense5th
Opp-adjusted defense1th
Offensive EPA/play2th
Defensive EPA/play14th
Offensive success rate4th
Explosiveness4th
Defensive havoc3th
Points per drive4th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Purdue2024OA -0.029 / -0.062similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, rushing offense3832Colorado2022OA -0.222 / -0.093similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, TD drive rate3823Massachusetts2025OA -0.185 / -0.202similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, rushing offense3774UTEP2019OA -0.113 / -0.192similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, passing offense3645Akron2024OA -0.044 / -0.031similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, takeaway rate361
2023 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ UCF | 6-56 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | @ Arkansas | 6-28 | L | +38.0 | W | 58 | U |
| 3 | vs Central Connecticut State | 38-10 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | @ Fresno State | 10-53 | L | +27.5 | L | 48.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Miami (OH) | 3-23 | L | +14.5 | L | 49.75 | U |
| 6 | @ Ohio | 17-42 | L | +26.0 | W | 45.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Eastern Michigan | 14-28 | L | +10.0 | L | 41.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Buffalo | 6-24 | L | +7.0 | L | 44.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Akron | 27-31 | L | +9.5 | L | 41 | O |
| 11 | vs Bowling Green | 19-49 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | @ Ball State | 3-34 | L | +13.0 | L | 42 | U |
| 13 | vs Northern Illinois | 27-37 | L | +18.5 | W | 44 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
3-7-1
30.0%
O/U Record
7-4
63.6%
Straight Up
1-11
8.3%
Home ATS1-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS3-7
Last 5 ATS
LPLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.157 | 3th | +0.096 | 14th |
| Red Zone | -0.215 | 10th | +0.232 | 7th |
| Third Down | -0.116 | 4th | +0.480 | 6th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.153 | 3th | +0.107 | 13th |
| First Half | -0.155 | 4th | +0.050 | 34th |
| Second Half | -0.159 | 7th | +0.135 | 7th |
| Early Downs | -0.153 | 9th | +0.018 | 30th |
| Passing Downs | -0.132 | 11th | +0.136 | 24th |
| Standard Downs | -0.174 | 4th | +0.075 | 20th |
| Goal to Go | -0.849 | 0th | +0.200 | 24th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 40.9%Rush 59.1%
Havoc/Game
9.3
Havoc Rate
13.6%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
9.6
Yards/Game
270.4
Pts/Drive
1.28
3rd Down%
29.8%
3&Out%
28.8%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 12 games — Kent State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Kent State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 176 | 415 |
| Points / Game | 14.7 | 34.6 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 180 | 237 |
| Rushing | 76 | 105 |
| Passing | 89 | 109 |
| Penalty | 15 | 23 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 441 | 460 |
| Yards | 1,271 | 2,113 |
| Yards / Carry | 2.9 | 4.6 |
| Yards / Game | 105.9 | 176.1 |
| Touchdowns | 8 | 31 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 305 | 315 |
| Completions | 160 | 184 |
| Completion % | 52.5% | 58.4% |
| Yards | 1,974 | 2,574 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.5 | 8.2 |
| Touchdowns | 11 | 21 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 6 |
| Passer Rating | 114.79 | 145.24 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 746 | 775 |
| Yards | 3,245 | 4,687 |
| Yards / Play | 4.3 | 6.0 |
| Yards / Game | 270.4 | 390.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 22 |
| Yards | 106 | 217 |
| Average | 7.6 | 9.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 42 | 25 |
| Yards | 887 | 523 |
| Average | 21.1 | 20.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 72 | 51 |
| Yards | 2,767 | 2,097 |
| Average | 38.4 | 41.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 6 | 6 |
| Yards | 0 | 82 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 8 | 8 |
| Lost | 6 | 3 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 65 | 60 |
| Yards | 554 | 466 |
| Yards / Game | 46.2 | 38.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:48 | 31:08 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 171 | 158 |
| Conversions | 51 | 75 |
| Conversion % | 29.8% | 47.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 26 | 15 |
| Conversions | 12 | 8 |
| Conversion % | 46.2% | 53.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 26 | 48 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 22 | 42 |
| Score % | 84.6% | 87.5% |
| Touchdowns | 10 | 37 |
| TD % | 38.5% | 77.1% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 12 |
| Made | 15 | 10 |
| Pct | 88.2% | 83.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 53 |
| Made | 17 | 53 |
| Pct | 94.4% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.