Fourth Down Data
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RICE

Rice

OwlsBalanced
American Conference4-8#121 (-8.19)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

10· FOverall
Offense
22· DRating
42· CPer play
51· CConsistency
34· DBig plays
Defense
10· FRating
12· FPer play
10· FConsistency
Situational
44· CRed-zone O
32· DRed-zone D
23· D3rd down O
29· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.045
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.110
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.018
Defensive EPA/play
+0.114
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.1%
Def Success Rate
50.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
28.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.132
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.026
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.90

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.48
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.70
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.30
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.10
own return game
Return Defense
-0.18
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#121
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#111
market 10 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 49 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Rice ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
32th
Opp-adjusted defense
13th
Offensive EPA/play
42th
Defensive EPA/play
12th
Offensive success rate
49th
Explosiveness
35th
Defensive havoc
59th
Points per drive
29th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Louisiana Tech2021OA -0.043 / -0.064similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3782North Carolina2017OA -0.028 / -0.042similar: turnover rate, pass defense, rushing offense3613Tulane2021OA +0.011 / -0.020similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3494Vanderbilt2023OA -0.121 / -0.060similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, rushing offense3485Middle Tennessee2020OA -0.016 / -0.033similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, run defense346

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Arkansas17-38L+19.5L50O
2vs Houston7-44L+9.5L54U
3@ Texas0-58L+36.5L53O
4vs Texas Southern48-34W-35.5L53.5O
5vs Southern Miss24-19W-1.5W44.5U
7@ UTSA0-45L+18.5L53.5U
8@ UAB30-24W+23.0W45O
9vs North Texas24-30L-2.5L56.5U
10@ Charlotte24-31L+6.0L53.5O
11vs Western Kentucky21-42L+18.5L62.5O
12@ UTEP28-38L+9.5L47.5O
13vs Louisiana Tech35-31W+3.5W52.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-9
25.0%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS1-5
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS2-7
Last 5 ATS
LLLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off35thRush Off39thRed Zone Off44th3rd Down Off23thPass Def11thRush Def22thRed Zone Def32th3rd Down Def29th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.03636th+0.08716th
Red Zone-0.06144th+0.04432th
Third Down-0.06723th+0.17029th
No Garbage Time-0.01940th+0.09915th
First Half-0.07629th+0.09119th
Second Half+0.00148th+0.08314th
Early Downs-0.03237th+0.03627th
Passing Downs-0.05735th+0.15011th
Standard Downs-0.02439th+0.05722th
Goal to Go+0.10074th+0.10734th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.1%Rush 57.9%
Havoc/Game
13.0
Havoc Rate
19.3%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
13.4
Yards/Game
361.2
Pts/Drive
1.90
3rd Down%
35.4%
3&Out%
21.8%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — Rice vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatRiceOpponents
Scoring
Points258434
Points / Game21.536.2
First Downs
Total235263
Rushing79111
Passing125127
Penalty3125
Rushing
Attempts475405
Yards1,7941,944
Yards / Carry3.84.8
Yards / Game149.5162.0
Touchdowns1930
Passing
Attempts346377
Completions205239
Completion %59.2%63.4%
Yards2,5403,287
Yards / Attempt7.38.7
Touchdowns1623
Interceptions1514
Passer Rating127.50149.34
Total Offense
Plays821782
Yards4,3345,231
Yards / Play5.36.7
Yards / Game361.2435.9
Punt Returns
Returns1131
Yards102254
Average9.38.2
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3031
Yards660638
Average22.020.6
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6347
Yards2,5571,892
Average40.640.3
Interception Returns
Returns1415
Yards50274
Touchdowns03
Fumbles
Fumbles1616
Lost75
Penalties
Penalties8879
Yards749782
Yards / Game62.465.2
Time of Possession
Per Game33:1426:44
Third Downs
Attempts175141
Conversions6255
Conversion %35.4%39.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2918
Conversions1612
Conversion %55.2%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips3859
Scores (TD + FG)2850
Score %73.7%84.7%
Touchdowns2441
TD %63.2%69.5%
Field Goals
Attempts1115
Made511
Pct45.5%73.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3555
Made3355
Pct94.3%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →