Fourth Down Data
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UNC

North Carolina

Tar HeelsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference3-9#50 (+4.89)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

63· COverall
Offense
63· CRating
16· DPer play
31· DConsistency
48· CBig plays
Defense
54· CRating
27· DPer play
36· DConsistency
Situational
27· DRed-zone O
68· CRed-zone D
6· F3rd down O
56· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.028
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.042
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.121
Defensive EPA/play
+0.058
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.5%
Def Success Rate
46.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.179
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.232
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.82

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.07
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.58
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.37
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.17
own return game
Return Defense
-0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#50
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#33
recruiting 17 spots higher
10 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where North Carolina ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
42th
Opp-adjusted defense
39th
Offensive EPA/play
16th
Defensive EPA/play
27th
Offensive success rate
29th
Explosiveness
49th
Defensive havoc
52th
Points per drive
27th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Charlotte2024OA -0.021 / -0.045similar: turnover rate, passing offense, offensive EPA3912Bowling Green2022OA -0.100 / -0.065similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, turnover rate3623Rice2021OA -0.045 / -0.110similar: turnover rate, pass defense, rushing offense3614UTSA2019OA -0.079 / -0.126similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, offensive EPA3595Indiana2023OA -0.009 / -0.034similar: run defense, offensive EPA, rushing offense359

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs California30-35L-12.5L58O
2vs Louisville35-47L+11.5L65.5O
3@ Old Dominion53-23W-11.0W56O
4vs Duke17-27L-1.5L61.5U
5@ Georgia Tech7-33L+9.5L58.5U
6vs Notre Dame10-33L+13.5L64U
7vs Virginia14-20L+3.0L53.5U
8@ Virginia Tech7-59L+20.5L53.5O
9vs Miami19-24L+21.0W55.5U
11@ Pittsburgh34-31W+9.5W50.5O
12vs Western Carolina65-10W-21.0W--
13@ NC State21-33L+15.0W57U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
5-6
45.5%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS3-5
Last 5 ATS
LWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off29thRush Off12thRed Zone Off27th3rd Down Off6thPass Def29thRush Def29thRed Zone Def69th3rd Down Def56th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.11717th+0.04029th
Red Zone-0.09827th-0.10669th
Third Down-0.3946th-0.04856th
No Garbage Time-0.12216th+0.04931th
First Half-0.07732th-0.02050th
Second Half-0.15713th+0.1088th
Early Downs-0.11417th+0.00533th
Passing Downs-0.07729th+0.07429th
Standard Downs-0.13812th+0.02329th
Goal to Go-0.26414th-0.21680th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.8%Rush 51.2%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
17.9%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
14.0
Yards/Game
369.6
Pts/Drive
1.82
3rd Down%
30.9%
3&Out%
25.9%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — North Carolina vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorth CarolinaOpponents
Scoring
Points312375
Points / Game26.031.3
First Downs
Total236265
Rushing89132
Passing129108
Penalty1825
Rushing
Attempts427532
Yards1,7302,556
Yards / Carry4.14.8
Yards / Game144.2213.0
Touchdowns1721
Passing
Attempts407363
Completions221201
Completion %54.3%55.4%
Yards2,7052,677
Yards / Attempt6.67.4
Touchdowns2122
Interceptions167
Passer Rating119.29133.46
Total Offense
Plays834895
Yards4,4355,233
Yards / Play5.35.8
Yards / Game369.6436.1
Punt Returns
Returns2124
Yards226304
Average10.812.7
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns4328
Yards1,011536
Average23.519.1
Touchdowns21
Punting
Punts7265
Yards3,1832,692
Average44.241.4
Interception Returns
Returns716
Yards100363
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles1421
Lost69
Penalties
Penalties9364
Yards872577
Yards / Game72.748.1
Time of Possession
Per Game26:3333:27
Third Downs
Attempts165187
Conversions5170
Conversion %30.9%37.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2124
Conversions1317
Conversion %61.9%70.8%
Red Zone
Trips3751
Scores (TD + FG)3140
Score %83.8%78.4%
Touchdowns2627
TD %70.3%52.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1420
Made914
Pct64.3%70.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3843
Made3741
Pct97.4%95.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts25
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →