Fourth Down Data
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CLT

Charlotte

49ersBalanced
American Conference5-7#113 (-5.59)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

16· DOverall
Offense
26· DRating
21· DPer play
16· DConsistency
21· DBig plays
Defense
7· FRating
12· FPer play
15· DConsistency
Situational
33· DRed-zone O
68· CRed-zone D
19· D3rd down O
41· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.021
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.045
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.073
Defensive EPA/play
+0.093
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.2%
Def Success Rate
47.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.166
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.088
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.92

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.47
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.28
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.34
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.03
own return game
Return Defense
-0.11
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#113
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#123
model 10 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
recruiting 33 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Charlotte ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
27th
Opp-adjusted defense
12th
Offensive EPA/play
21th
Defensive EPA/play
12th
Offensive success rate
20th
Explosiveness
22th
Defensive havoc
37th
Points per drive
25th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1North Carolina2017OA -0.028 / -0.042similar: turnover rate, passing offense, offensive EPA3912East Carolina2026OA -0.001 / -0.051similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3763Bowling Green2017OA +0.025 / -0.172similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense3634Nebraska2017OA +0.058 / -0.086similar: offensive EPA, run defense, defensive EPA3615Vanderbilt2023OA -0.121 / -0.060similar: defensive EPA, run defense, rushing offense355

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs James Madison7-30L+9.0L48U
2@ North Carolina20-38L+22.0W48.25O
3vs Gardner-Webb27-26W-10.5L47O
4@ Indiana14-52L+28.5L48.5O
5@ Rice21-20W+6.5W47.5U
6vs East Carolina55-24W+8.5W47O
8@ Navy17-51L+17.0L55O
9@ Memphis28-33L+18.5W57O
10vs Tulane3-34L----
12vs South Florida24-59L+3.0L52.5O
13@ Florida Atlantic39-27W-3.0W48.5O
14vs UAB29-27W-2.5L60.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
LWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off24thRush Off19thRed Zone Off33th3rd Down Off19thPass Def7thRush Def54thRed Zone Def69th3rd Down Def42th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.07217th+0.05724th
Red Zone-0.07633th-0.09969th
Third Down-0.03419th+0.12442th
No Garbage Time-0.07720th+0.08014th
First Half-0.11916th+0.08517th
Second Half-0.02434th+0.03039th
Early Downs-0.07022th-0.00538th
Passing Downs-0.07724th+0.2107th
Standard Downs-0.06819th-0.02054th
Goal to Go-0.3719th-0.25886th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.5%Rush 52.5%
Havoc/Game
12.1
Havoc Rate
16.9%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
11.3
Yards/Game
341.2
Pts/Drive
1.92
3rd Down%
30.7%
3&Out%
21.5%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — Charlotte vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatCharlotteOpponents
Scoring
Points284421
Points / Game23.735.1
First Downs
Total206277
Rushing77138
Passing104110
Penalty2529
Rushing
Attempts390483
Yards1,4052,524
Yards / Carry3.65.2
Yards / Game117.1210.3
Touchdowns1629
Passing
Attempts353343
Completions177206
Completion %50.1%60.1%
Yards2,6892,674
Yards / Attempt7.67.8
Touchdowns1618
Interceptions1410
Passer Rating121.15137.03
Total Offense
Plays743826
Yards4,0945,198
Yards / Play5.56.3
Yards / Game341.2433.2
Punt Returns
Returns1410
Yards4884
Average3.48.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3915
Yards834415
Average21.427.7
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5540
Yards2,3481,663
Average42.741.6
Interception Returns
Returns1014
Yards94234
Touchdowns15
Fumbles
Fumbles159
Lost72
Penalties
Penalties9379
Yards784682
Yards / Game65.356.8
Time of Possession
Per Game28:3731:22
Third Downs
Attempts153153
Conversions4764
Conversion %30.7%41.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2424
Conversions1013
Conversion %41.7%54.2%
Red Zone
Trips3156
Scores (TD + FG)2842
Score %90.3%75.0%
Touchdowns1730
TD %54.8%53.6%
Field Goals
Attempts1623
Made1615
Pct100.0%65.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3052
Made3050
Pct100.0%96.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts42
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →