Fourth Down Data
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DUKE

Duke

Blue DevilsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference3-9#123 (-9.29)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

8· FOverall
Offense
8· FRating
25· DPer play
16· DConsistency
54· CBig plays
Defense
7· FRating
7· FPer play
46· CConsistency
Situational
4· FRed-zone O
23· DRed-zone D
80· B3rd down O
8· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.141
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.122
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.070
Defensive EPA/play
+0.150
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.5%
Def Success Rate
46.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.220
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.109
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.81

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.57
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.07
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.16
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.94
own return game
Return Defense
+0.72
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#123
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#114
market 9 higher
Recruiting Rank
#61
recruiting 62 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Duke ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
5th
Opp-adjusted defense
11th
Offensive EPA/play
26th
Defensive EPA/play
8th
Offensive success rate
24th
Explosiveness
55th
Defensive havoc
26th
Points per drive
25th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Baylor2023OA -0.051 / -0.087similar: rushing offense, pass defense, defensive EPA3662Bowling Green2017OA +0.025 / -0.172similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, rushing offense3583Middle Tennessee2023OA -0.089 / -0.016similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, turnover rate3504UCLA2019OA -0.012 / -0.052similar: pass defense, turnover rate, defensive EPA3395Baylor2017OA -0.048 / -0.025similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, TD drive rate337

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Charlotte28-31L----
2vs North Carolina A&T45-17W----
3vs Northwestern30-23W+3.0W49.5O
4vs Kansas52-33W-16.5W57.5O
5@ North Carolina7-38L+20.0L72.5U
6vs Georgia Tech27-31L+4.0P61U
7@ Virginia0-48L+11.0L69.5U
9@ Wake Forest7-45L+16.5L70.25U
10vs Pittsburgh29-54L+21.0L64.5O
11@ Virginia Tech17-48L+19.5L60.5O
12vs Louisville22-62L----
13vs Miami10-47L+21.5L68.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
2-8-1
20.0%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS0-5
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS1-7
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off28thRush Off25thRed Zone Off4th3rd Down Off80thPass Def6thRush Def11thRed Zone Def23th3rd Down Def8th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.06726th+0.1386th
Red Zone-0.3824th+0.10123th
Third Down+0.23080th+0.3318th
No Garbage Time-0.07026th+0.1546th
First Half-0.12619th+0.2063th
Second Half-0.00744th+0.05526th
Early Downs-0.10120th+0.1119th
Passing Downs-0.08028th+0.1856th
Standard Downs-0.06025th+0.11311th
Goal to Go-0.3449th+0.03841th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.9%Rush 56.1%
Havoc/Game
12.4
Havoc Rate
16.6%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
418.4
Pts/Drive
1.81
3rd Down%
42.4%
3&Out%
16.1%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — Duke vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatDukeOpponents
Scoring
Points274477
Points / Game22.839.8
First Downs
Total262293
Rushing111114
Passing131155
Penalty2024
Rushing
Attempts524468
Yards2,1662,470
Yards / Carry4.15.3
Yards / Game180.5205.8
Touchdowns2226
Passing
Attempts410405
Completions265241
Completion %64.6%59.5%
Yards2,8553,741
Yards / Attempt7.09.2
Touchdowns932
Interceptions98
Passer Rating125.98159.22
Total Offense
Plays934873
Yards5,0216,211
Yards / Play5.47.1
Yards / Game418.4517.6
Punt Returns
Returns1527
Yards127221
Average8.58.2
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns4320
Yards995288
Average23.114.4
Touchdowns20
Punting
Punts6147
Yards2,7341,947
Average44.841.4
Interception Returns
Returns89
Yards101115
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1820
Lost126
Penalties
Penalties7877
Yards740643
Yards / Game61.753.6
Time of Possession
Per Game29:1930:41
Third Downs
Attempts203173
Conversions8684
Conversion %42.4%48.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2912
Conversions119
Conversion %37.9%75.0%
Red Zone
Trips4355
Scores (TD + FG)3151
Score %72.1%92.7%
Touchdowns2037
TD %46.5%67.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2123
Made1420
Pct66.7%87.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3258
Made3257
Pct100.0%98.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →