Fourth Down Data
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Baylor

BearsBalanced
Big 12 Conference1-11#76 (-1.39)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

43· COverall
Offense
49· CRating
25· DPer play
9· FConsistency
37· DBig plays
Defense
41· CRating
19· DPer play
42· CConsistency
Situational
5· FRed-zone O
75· BRed-zone D
19· D3rd down O
30· D3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.048
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.025
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.091
Defensive EPA/play
+0.085
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.8%
Def Success Rate
46.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.176
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.051
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.83

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.69
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.35
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.90
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.14
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#76
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#42
recruiting 34 spots higher
6 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Baylor ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
28th
Opp-adjusted defense
41th
Offensive EPA/play
25th
Defensive EPA/play
19th
Offensive success rate
11th
Explosiveness
38th
Defensive havoc
50th
Points per drive
29th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arkansas State2021OA -0.102 / -0.143similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, rushing offense3842Georgia Tech2026OA -0.049 / -0.024similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, takeaway rate3643Stanford2019OA +0.023 / -0.058similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, pass defense3554Boston College2025OA -0.019 / -0.094similar: turnover rate, pass defense, rushing offense3485Arizona2020OA -0.042 / -0.021similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, defensive success rate344

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Liberty45-48L-33.0L86.5O
2vs UTSA10-17L-12.5L56.5U
3@ Duke20-34L+10.5L61.5U
4vs Oklahoma41-49L+27.5W60.5O
5@ Kansas State20-33L+14.5W56.5U
7@ Oklahoma State16-59L+26.0L67.5O
8vs West Virginia36-38L+10.5W67O
9vs Texas7-38L+10.0L53U
10@ Kansas38-9W-7.0W60U
11vs Texas Tech24-38L+10.0L67U
12vs Iowa State13-23L+7.5L49.5U
13@ TCU22-45L+24.5W52.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
1-11
8.3%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
LWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off51thRush Off20thRed Zone Off5th3rd Down Off19thPass Def13thRush Def26thRed Zone Def76th3rd Down Def30th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.07729th+0.08217th
Red Zone-0.2535th-0.13576th
Third Down-0.25219th+0.08330th
No Garbage Time-0.09225th+0.08219th
First Half-0.11914th+0.13411th
Second Half-0.03845th+0.02730th
Early Downs-0.06239th+0.05520th
Passing Downs-0.02651th+0.16713th
Standard Downs-0.11020th+0.03726th
Goal to Go-0.06241th-0.15272th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.7%Rush 47.3%
Havoc/Game
13.2
Havoc Rate
17.8%
TO Margin
-1.2
Explosive/G
14.7
Yards/Game
404.9
Pts/Drive
1.83
3rd Down%
32.8%
3&Out%
20.3%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — Baylor vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBaylorOpponents
Scoring
Points292431
Points / Game24.335.9
First Downs
Total239264
Rushing80124
Passing137125
Penalty2215
Rushing
Attempts414463
Yards1,4072,279
Yards / Carry3.44.9
Yards / Game117.3189.9
Touchdowns1022
Passing
Attempts462386
Completions269255
Completion %58.2%66.1%
Yards3,4523,204
Yards / Attempt7.58.3
Touchdowns2325
Interceptions143
Passer Rating131.36155.61
Total Offense
Plays876849
Yards4,8595,483
Yards / Play5.56.5
Yards / Game404.9456.9
Punt Returns
Returns720
Yards6059
Average8.63.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3742
Yards6621,032
Average17.924.6
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6054
Yards2,5222,251
Average42.041.7
Interception Returns
Returns314
Yards20172
Touchdowns03
Fumbles
Fumbles2116
Lost118
Penalties
Penalties8879
Yards671787
Yards / Game55.965.6
Time of Possession
Per Game29:4830:12
Third Downs
Attempts186169
Conversions6166
Conversion %32.8%39.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3316
Conversions1710
Conversion %51.5%62.5%
Red Zone
Trips4044
Scores (TD + FG)3139
Score %77.5%88.6%
Touchdowns1822
TD %45.0%50.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2427
Made2022
Pct83.3%81.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3151
Made3051
Pct96.8%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts21
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →