Fourth Down Data
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ARST

Arkansas State

Red WolvesPass-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference2-10#120 (-7.88)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

10· FOverall
Offense
12· FRating
32· DPer play
7· FConsistency
72· BBig plays
Defense
7· FRating
15· DPer play
29· DConsistency
Situational
22· DRed-zone O
45· CRed-zone D
43· C3rd down O
22· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.102
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.143
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.049
Defensive EPA/play
+0.104
lower = better
Off Success Rate
40.7%
Def Success Rate
47.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.152
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.018
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.71

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+2.69
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.68
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.12
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+1.22
own return game
Return Defense
+0.67
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#120
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#113
market 7 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 48 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Arkansas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
14th
Opp-adjusted defense
6th
Offensive EPA/play
32th
Defensive EPA/play
15th
Offensive success rate
8th
Explosiveness
73th
Defensive havoc
35th
Points per drive
20th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Baylor2017OA -0.048 / -0.025similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, rushing offense3842Virginia2023OA -0.060 / -0.007similar: run defense, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3843Hawai'i2026OA -0.078 / -0.040similar: offensive success rate, pass defense, offensive EPA3794Louisiana Tech2022OA -0.079 / -0.123similar: takeaway rate, passing offense, defensive EPA3735Georgia State2024OA +0.015 / -0.051similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, offensive success rate356

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Central Arkansas40-21W-13.5W--
2vs Memphis50-55L+5.5W64.5O
3@ Washington3-52L+17.0L58U
4@ Tulsa34-41L+14.5W64.5O
5@ Georgia Southern33-59L+1.5L66O
6vs Coastal Carolina20-52L----
8vs Louisiana27-28L----
9@ South Alabama13-31L+9.0L66U
10vs App State14-48L+21.0L68U
11@ UL Monroe27-24W+3.0W66.5U
12@ Georgia State20-28L+16.5W63.5U
13vs Texas State22-24L-2.0L62U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
3-8
27.3%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS5-5
Last 5 ATS
LLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off76thRush Off8thRed Zone Off22th3rd Down Off44thPass Def12thRush Def20thRed Zone Def45th3rd Down Def22th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.06029th+0.08617th
Red Zone-0.15822th-0.01445th
Third Down+0.05144th+0.22522th
No Garbage Time-0.05632th+0.10014th
First Half-0.14314th+0.1627th
Second Half+0.01956th+0.00348th
Early Downs-0.07126th+0.03429th
Passing Downs+0.07776th+0.13912th
Standard Downs-0.1508th+0.06120th
Goal to Go-0.01055th-0.06359th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 60.0%Rush 40.0%
Havoc/Game
12.8
Havoc Rate
17.2%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
16.2
Yards/Game
396.3
Pts/Drive
1.71
3rd Down%
33.1%
3&Out%
25.0%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — Arkansas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArkansas StateOpponents
Scoring
Points303463
Points / Game25.338.6
First Downs
Total259270
Rushing61139
Passing163114
Penalty3517
Rushing
Attempts349488
Yards9893,133
Yards / Carry2.86.4
Yards / Game82.4261.1
Touchdowns432
Passing
Attempts524352
Completions310206
Completion %59.2%58.5%
Yards3,7672,938
Yards / Attempt7.28.3
Touchdowns2726
Interceptions1711
Passer Rating130.06146.76
Total Offense
Plays873840
Yards4,7566,071
Yards / Play5.47.2
Yards / Game396.3505.9
Punt Returns
Returns1722
Yards13177
Average7.73.5
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns6128
Yards1,400517
Average23.018.5
Touchdowns20
Punting
Punts6964
Yards2,9952,668
Average43.441.7
Interception Returns
Returns1117
Yards109204
Touchdowns03
Fumbles
Fumbles1116
Lost56
Penalties
Penalties6782
Yards602825
Yards / Game50.268.8
Time of Possession
Per Game29:0230:47
Third Downs
Attempts175162
Conversions5867
Conversion %33.1%41.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1713
Conversions511
Conversion %29.4%84.6%
Red Zone
Trips3941
Scores (TD + FG)3334
Score %84.6%82.9%
Touchdowns1928
TD %48.7%68.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2512
Made2010
Pct80.0%83.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3262
Made3161
Pct96.9%98.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts20
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →