Fourth Down Data
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Louisiana Tech

BulldogsBalanced
Sun Belt Conference3-9#125 (-7.33)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

8· FOverall
Offense
31· DRating
40· CPer play
30· DConsistency
41· CBig plays
Defense
4· FRating
18· DPer play
32· DConsistency
Situational
4· FRed-zone O
63· CRed-zone D
67· C3rd down O
56· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.079
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.123
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.050
Defensive EPA/play
+0.073
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.7%
Def Success Rate
48.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
28.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.123
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.012
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.04

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.20
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.02
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.02
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.64
own return game
Return Defense
-0.49
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#125
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#113
market 12 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 50 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Louisiana Tech ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
27th
Opp-adjusted defense
9th
Offensive EPA/play
41th
Defensive EPA/play
19th
Offensive success rate
31th
Explosiveness
41th
Defensive havoc
23th
Points per drive
45th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UAB2024OA -0.034 / -0.035similar: pass defense, run defense, defensive EPA4032Arkansas State2021OA -0.102 / -0.143similar: takeaway rate, passing offense, defensive EPA3733Hawai'i2024OA -0.018 / -0.015similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate3614Rice2022OA -0.041 / -0.043similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, rushing offense3545Virginia2023OA -0.060 / -0.007similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, run defense349

2022 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Missouri24-52L----
2vs Stephen F. Austin52-17W----
3@ Clemson20-48L+33.5W54O
4@ South Alabama14-38L+13.0L60U
6vs UTEP41-31W-2.5W52.5O
7@ North Texas27-47L+6.5L68O
8vs Rice41-42L+3.0W57.5O
9@ Florida International34-42L----
10vs Middle Tennessee40-24W+2.5W63.25O
11@ UTSA7-51L+18.5L68.5U
12@ Charlotte21-26L-3.0L64.5U
13vs UAB27-37L+17.5W56O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-6
45.5%
O/U Record
8-3
72.7%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS4-0
Away ATS1-6
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS4-4
Last 5 ATS
WWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off38thRush Off46thRed Zone Off4th3rd Down Off68thPass Def15thRush Def18thRed Zone Def64th3rd Down Def56th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.03445th+0.07119th
Red Zone-0.3974th-0.12664th
Third Down+0.17268th+0.03456th
No Garbage Time-0.05339th+0.06919th
First Half+0.02557th+0.04027th
Second Half-0.10821th+0.1019th
Early Downs-0.07125th+0.03919th
Passing Downs-0.06238th+0.12215th
Standard Downs-0.01946th+0.04318th
Goal to Go+0.02059th-0.16366th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.1%Rush 47.9%
Havoc/Game
11.9
Havoc Rate
16.0%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
13.9
Yards/Game
392.0
Pts/Drive
2.04
3rd Down%
36.7%
3&Out%
19.6%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 12 games — Louisiana Tech vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLouisiana TechOpponents
Scoring
Points348455
Points / Game29.037.9
First Downs
Total233290
Rushing84140
Passing120124
Penalty2926
Rushing
Attempts399477
Yards1,4972,918
Yards / Carry3.86.1
Yards / Game124.8243.2
Touchdowns1434
Passing
Attempts434386
Completions254219
Completion %58.5%56.7%
Yards3,2072,707
Yards / Attempt7.47.0
Touchdowns2520
Interceptions1911
Passer Rating130.85127.04
Total Offense
Plays833863
Yards4,7045,625
Yards / Play5.66.5
Yards / Game392.0468.8
Punt Returns
Returns199
Yards236123
Average12.413.7
Touchdowns02
Kickoff Returns
Returns3526
Yards744479
Average21.318.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4749
Yards1,8732,079
Average39.942.4
Interception Returns
Returns1119
Yards135180
Touchdowns22
Fumbles
Fumbles1320
Lost611
Penalties
Penalties8297
Yards772865
Yards / Game64.372.1
Time of Possession
Per Game29:3529:47
Third Downs
Attempts177165
Conversions6571
Conversion %36.7%43.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2927
Conversions1318
Conversion %44.8%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips4955
Scores (TD + FG)3546
Score %71.4%83.6%
Touchdowns2332
TD %46.9%58.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2517
Made1817
Pct72.0%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3955
Made3854
Pct97.4%98.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts33
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →