Fourth Down Data
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UVA

Virginia

CavaliersBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference3-9#111 (-5.21)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

18· DOverall
Offense
23· DRating
25· DPer play
23· DConsistency
48· CBig plays
Defense
38· DRating
28· DPer play
30· DConsistency
Situational
25· DRed-zone O
10· FRed-zone D
20· D3rd down O
62· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.060
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.007
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.056
Defensive EPA/play
+0.056
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.4%
Def Success Rate
47.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.113
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.067
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.72

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-2.14
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.99
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.79
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.10
own return game
Return Defense
-0.25
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#111
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#128
model 17 higher
Recruiting Rank
#57
recruiting 54 spots higher
5 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Virginia ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
24th
Opp-adjusted defense
49th
Offensive EPA/play
25th
Defensive EPA/play
28th
Offensive success rate
29th
Explosiveness
49th
Defensive havoc
7th
Points per drive
19th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UAB2024OA -0.034 / -0.035similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, rushing offense4202Arkansas State2021OA -0.102 / -0.143similar: TD drive rate, run defense, offensive EPA3853San José State2026OA -0.007 / +0.033similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3804Nebraska2017OA +0.058 / -0.086similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, run defense3605Purdue2019OA +0.028 / -0.016similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, passing offense357

2023 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Tennessee13-49L+28.0L56O
2vs James Madison35-36L+6.5W40O
3@ Maryland14-42L+9.5W47.5U
4vs NC State21-24L----
5@ Boston College24-27L+3.5W53.5U
6vs William & Mary27-13W----
8@ North Carolina31-27W+23.5W56.5O
9@ Miami26-29L+19.0W47.5O
10vs Georgia Tech17-45L+20.5W50.5O
11@ Louisville24-31L----
12vs Duke30-27W+4.0W47O
13vs Virginia Tech17-55L+3.0L51O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-4
63.6%
O/U Record
9-2
81.8%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS7-3
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off46thRush Off27thRed Zone Off25th3rd Down Off20thPass Def62thRush Def16thRed Zone Def10th3rd Down Def62th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.02436th+0.05428th
Red Zone-0.09725th+0.20810th
Third Down+0.03920th+0.12962th
No Garbage Time-0.05924th+0.03639th
First Half-0.06923th+0.01248th
Second Half+0.01656th+0.09918th
Early Downs-0.08627th+0.04918th
Passing Downs+0.04746th-0.00362th
Standard Downs-0.06427th+0.08016th
Goal to Go+0.00146th+0.33614th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.6%Rush 53.4%
Havoc/Game
10.8
Havoc Rate
15.1%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
368.8
Pts/Drive
1.72
3rd Down%
36.1%
3&Out%
25.4%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 12 games — Virginia vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatVirginiaOpponents
Scoring
Points279405
Points / Game23.333.8
First Downs
Total252259
Rushing101119
Passing127119
Penalty2421
Rushing
Attempts454434
Yards1,4152,214
Yards / Carry3.15.1
Yards / Game117.9184.5
Touchdowns1227
Passing
Attempts396378
Completions248232
Completion %62.6%61.4%
Yards3,0102,697
Yards / Attempt7.67.1
Touchdowns1919
Interceptions148
Passer Rating135.24133.66
Total Offense
Plays850812
Yards4,4254,911
Yards / Play5.26.0
Yards / Game368.8409.3
Punt Returns
Returns1619
Yards61224
Average3.811.8
Touchdowns02
Kickoff Returns
Returns1931
Yards389706
Average20.522.8
Touchdowns02
Punting
Punts6656
Yards2,7462,364
Average41.642.2
Interception Returns
Returns814
Yards8076
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1312
Lost66
Penalties
Penalties7869
Yards663676
Yards / Game55.356.3
Time of Possession
Per Game31:2528:35
Third Downs
Attempts183161
Conversions6665
Conversion %36.1%40.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2019
Conversions1211
Conversion %60.0%57.9%
Red Zone
Trips4341
Scores (TD + FG)3435
Score %79.1%85.4%
Touchdowns2227
TD %51.2%65.9%
Field Goals
Attempts2120
Made1817
Pct85.7%85.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3148
Made3148
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →