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PUR
Purdue
BoilermakersPass-HeavyBig Ten Conference4-8#71 (-2.01)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
47· COverall
Offense
65· CRating
36· DPer play
28· DConsistency
31· DBig plays
Defense
38· DRating
46· CPer play
18· DConsistency
Situational
81· BRed-zone O
35· DRed-zone D
81· B3rd down O
76· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.028
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.016
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.028
Defensive EPA/play
+0.013
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.1%
Def Success Rate
48.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.041
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.155
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.93
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.78
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.40
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.25
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.15
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#71
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#43
recruiting 28 spots higher
5 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Purdue ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense61th
Opp-adjusted defense45th
Offensive EPA/play37th
Defensive EPA/play46th
Offensive success rate28th
Explosiveness31th
Defensive havoc22th
Points per drive36th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1San José State2026OA -0.007 / +0.033similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, havoc rate3602Virginia2023OA -0.060 / -0.007similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, passing offense3573Nebraska2022OA +0.012 / -0.072similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, turnover rate3484Sam Houston2026OA +0.018 / +0.019similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3425Hawai'i2026OA -0.078 / -0.040similar: havoc rate, pass defense, takeaway rate338
2019 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Nevada | 31-34 | L | -11.0 | L | 58.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Vanderbilt | 42-24 | W | -7.0 | W | 56 | O |
| 3 | vs TCU | 13-34 | L | +3.5 | L | 52 | U |
| 5 | vs Minnesota | 31-38 | L | -2.0 | L | 57 | O |
| 6 | @ Penn State | 7-35 | L | +28.5 | W | 55.5 | U |
| 7 | vs Maryland | 40-14 | W | +4.0 | W | 52 | O |
| 8 | @ Iowa | 20-26 | L | +17.5 | W | 47.5 | U |
| 9 | vs Illinois | 6-24 | L | -9.0 | L | 54.5 | U |
| 10 | vs Nebraska | 31-27 | W | +4.5 | W | 58 | P |
| 11 | @ Northwestern | 24-22 | W | 0.0 | W | 38.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Wisconsin | 24-45 | L | +25.0 | W | 49.5 | O |
| 14 | vs Indiana | 41-44 | L | +7.0 | W | 56.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
7-4-1
63.6%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS1-3
Underdog ATS7-1
Last 5 ATS
LWWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.022 | 35th | +0.003 | 46th |
| Red Zone | +0.153 | 81th | +0.046 | 35th |
| Third Down | +0.190 | 81th | -0.100 | 77th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.032 | 36th | +0.015 | 44th |
| First Half | -0.036 | 32th | +0.059 | 29th |
| Second Half | -0.009 | 44th | -0.051 | 69th |
| Early Downs | -0.014 | 40th | +0.018 | 43th |
| Passing Downs | -0.053 | 33th | -0.007 | 50th |
| Standard Downs | -0.005 | 49th | +0.009 | 46th |
| Goal to Go | +0.284 | 89th | +0.030 | 41th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 60.3%Rush 39.7%
Havoc/Game
11.8
Havoc Rate
15.8%
TO Margin
-0.7
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
393.2
Pts/Drive
1.93
3rd Down%
40.8%
3&Out%
28.0%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 12 games — Purdue vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Purdue | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 310 | 367 |
| Points / Game | 25.8 | 30.6 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 247 | 261 |
| Rushing | 61 | 119 |
| Passing | 164 | 128 |
| Penalty | 22 | 14 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 342 | 487 |
| Yards | 999 | 2,310 |
| Yards / Carry | 2.9 | 4.7 |
| Yards / Game | 83.3 | 192.5 |
| Touchdowns | 9 | 25 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 520 | 382 |
| Completions | 320 | 236 |
| Completion % | 61.5% | 61.8% |
| Yards | 3,719 | 2,925 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.2 | 7.7 |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 20 |
| Interceptions | 15 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 134.25 | 138.66 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 862 | 869 |
| Yards | 4,718 | 5,235 |
| Yards / Play | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| Yards / Game | 393.2 | 436.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 17 |
| Yards | 67 | 100 |
| Average | 5.6 | 5.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 33 | 17 |
| Yards | 521 | 334 |
| Average | 15.8 | 19.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 68 | 62 |
| Yards | 2,577 | 2,557 |
| Average | 37.9 | 41.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 15 |
| Yards | 135 | 62 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 17 | 17 |
| Lost | 8 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 55 | 85 |
| Yards | 452 | 728 |
| Yards / Game | 37.7 | 60.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 27:36 | 32:24 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 179 | 175 |
| Conversions | 73 | 71 |
| Conversion % | 40.8% | 40.6% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 16 | 18 |
| Conversions | 8 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 50.0% | 61.1% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 41 | 47 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 39 | 38 |
| Score % | 95.1% | 80.9% |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 28 |
| TD % | 70.7% | 59.6% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 16 | 22 |
| Made | 13 | 15 |
| Pct | 81.3% | 68.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 35 | 42 |
| Made | 35 | 42 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 3 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.