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ECU
East Carolina
PiratesBalancedAmerican Conference4-8#124 (-15.40)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
8· FOverall
Offense
27· DRating
62· CPer play
47· CConsistency
64· CBig plays
Defense
8· FRating
18· DPer play
3· FConsistency
Situational
12· FRed-zone O
25· DRed-zone D
56· C3rd down O
35· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.024
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.138
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.039
Defensive EPA/play
+0.093
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.3%
Def Success Rate
50.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.054
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.179
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.92
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.05
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.24
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.60
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.17
own return game
Return Defense
-0.05
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#124
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 49 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where East Carolina ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense59th
Opp-adjusted defense4th
Offensive EPA/play63th
Defensive EPA/play19th
Offensive success rate51th
Explosiveness65th
Defensive havoc25th
Points per drive34th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Boston College2020OA +0.002 / -0.018similar: run defense, havoc rate, passing offense4012Georgia State2024OA +0.015 / -0.051similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3993Arkansas State2024OA +0.004 / -0.063similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3934Old Dominion2018OA -0.024 / -0.145similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, pass defense3755Louisiana Tech2021OA -0.043 / -0.064similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, rushing offense367
2019 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ NC State | 6-34 | L | +17.5 | L | 52 | U |
| 2 | vs Gardner-Webb | 48-9 | W | -31.0 | W | 58.5 | U |
| 3 | @ Navy | 10-42 | L | +7.5 | L | 53 | U |
| 4 | vs William & Mary | 19-7 | W | -14.0 | L | 50 | U |
| 5 | @ Old Dominion | 24-21 | W | +3.0 | W | 46.5 | U |
| 6 | vs Temple | 17-27 | L | +12.5 | W | 46 | U |
| 8 | @ UCF | 28-41 | L | +34.5 | W | 65.5 | O |
| 9 | vs South Florida | 20-45 | L | +1.0 | L | 51 | O |
| 10 | vs Cincinnati | 43-46 | L | +24.5 | W | 48.5 | O |
| 11 | @ SMU | 51-59 | L | +23.0 | W | 74 | O |
| 13 | @ UConn | 31-24 | W | -16.0 | L | 64.5 | U |
| 14 | vs Tulsa | 24-49 | L | +6.5 | L | 64.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS5-4
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.048 | 66th | +0.070 | 22th |
| Red Zone | -0.243 | 12th | +0.092 | 26th |
| Third Down | +0.066 | 57th | +0.087 | 36th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.047 | 66th | +0.088 | 18th |
| First Half | +0.007 | 49th | +0.127 | 10th |
| Second Half | +0.094 | 81th | +0.011 | 47th |
| Early Downs | +0.025 | 61th | +0.091 | 10th |
| Passing Downs | +0.111 | 74th | +0.066 | 33th |
| Standard Downs | +0.012 | 55th | +0.072 | 19th |
| Goal to Go | -0.301 | 17th | -0.048 | 53th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 50.1%Rush 49.9%
Havoc/Game
11.8
Havoc Rate
16.1%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
15.1
Yards/Game
430.2
Pts/Drive
1.92
3rd Down%
39.3%
3&Out%
21.5%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 12 games — East Carolina vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | East Carolina | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 321 | 404 |
| Points / Game | 26.8 | 33.7 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 288 | 278 |
| Rushing | 99 | 125 |
| Passing | 152 | 133 |
| Penalty | 37 | 20 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 449 | 493 |
| Yards | 1,696 | 2,493 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.8 | 5.1 |
| Yards / Game | 141.3 | 207.8 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 28 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 451 | 371 |
| Completions | 270 | 231 |
| Completion % | 59.9% | 62.3% |
| Yards | 3,466 | 3,139 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.7 | 8.5 |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 24 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 11 |
| Passer Rating | 136.09 | 148.75 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 900 | 864 |
| Yards | 5,162 | 5,632 |
| Yards / Play | 5.7 | 6.5 |
| Yards / Game | 430.2 | 469.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 16 |
| Yards | 79 | 172 |
| Average | 5.3 | 10.8 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 40 | 16 |
| Yards | 653 | 388 |
| Average | 16.3 | 24.3 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 65 | 58 |
| Yards | 2,653 | 2,323 |
| Average | 40.8 | 40.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 10 |
| Yards | 108 | 209 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 15 |
| Lost | 7 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 71 | 101 |
| Yards | 615 | 889 |
| Yards / Game | 51.3 | 74.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:34 | 30:26 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 178 | 170 |
| Conversions | 70 | 72 |
| Conversion % | 39.3% | 42.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 7 | 23 |
| Conversions | 3 | 13 |
| Conversion % | 42.9% | 56.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 52 | 47 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 43 | 41 |
| Score % | 82.7% | 87.2% |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 32 |
| TD % | 46.2% | 68.1% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 29 | 11 |
| Made | 24 | 10 |
| Pct | 82.8% | 90.9% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 33 | 50 |
| Made | 33 | 50 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 3 |
| Made | 0 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.