Fourth Down Data
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WAKE

Wake Forest

Demon DeaconsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference4-8#93 (-3.07)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

31· DOverall
Offense
40· CRating
42· CPer play
58· CConsistency
48· CBig plays
Defense
21· DRating
23· DPer play
8· FConsistency
Situational
20· DRed-zone O
18· DRed-zone D
28· D3rd down O
86· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.006
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.031
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.004
Defensive EPA/play
+0.060
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.7%
Def Success Rate
50.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.064
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.205
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.10

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.18
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.05
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.04
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.09
own return game
Return Defense
-0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#93
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#108
model 15 higher
Recruiting Rank
#63
recruiting 30 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Wake Forest ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
39th
Opp-adjusted defense
20th
Offensive EPA/play
43th
Defensive EPA/play
23th
Offensive success rate
60th
Explosiveness
49th
Defensive havoc
7th
Points per drive
36th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Louisiana Tech2021OA -0.043 / -0.064similar: offensive EPA, run defense, TD drive rate4562Middle Tennessee2020OA -0.016 / -0.033similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, defensive EPA3603UCLA2018OA +0.036 / -0.086similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, havoc rate3374Boston College2025OA -0.019 / -0.094similar: havoc rate, pass defense, TD drive rate3335Maryland2024OA -0.026 / -0.007similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, havoc rate332

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs North Carolina A&T45-13W----
2vs Virginia30-31L-2.5L54.5O
3vs Ole Miss6-40L+22.5L64.5U
5vs Louisiana38-41L-3.5L60.5O
6@ NC State34-30W+5.5W53.5O
7vs Clemson14-49L+20.0L60.5O
8@ UConn23-20W+1.0W57.5U
9@ Stanford27-24W-3.0P54U
11vs California36-46L----
12@ North Carolina24-31L+11.0W64U
13@ Miami14-42L+24.5L64.5U
14vs Duke17-23L+4.0L53.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-8-1
27.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS0-7
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS0-3
Underdog ATS3-5
Last 5 ATS
PLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off16thRush Off73thRed Zone Off20th3rd Down Off28thPass Def40thRush Def16thRed Zone Def18th3rd Down Def87th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.01736th+0.06421th
Red Zone-0.15220th+0.14718th
Third Down-0.00028th-0.09387th
No Garbage Time-0.00046th+0.05226th
First Half+0.00750th+0.07919th
Second Half-0.04025th+0.04730th
Early Downs+0.02366th+0.05019th
Passing Downs-0.15416th+0.03940th
Standard Downs+0.05373th+0.07516th
Goal to Go+0.19274th-0.05360th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.6%Rush 52.4%
Havoc/Game
10.3
Havoc Rate
13.6%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
15.7
Yards/Game
370.7
Pts/Drive
2.10
3rd Down%
39.4%
3&Out%
19.1%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — Wake Forest vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWake ForestOpponents
Scoring
Points308390
Points / Game25.732.5
First Downs
Total261305
Rushing93121
Passing136170
Penalty3214
Rushing
Attempts444414
Yards1,5671,886
Yards / Carry3.54.6
Yards / Game130.6157.2
Touchdowns1820
Passing
Attempts404455
Completions248320
Completion %61.4%70.3%
Yards2,8813,334
Yards / Attempt7.17.3
Touchdowns1723
Interceptions1311
Passer Rating128.74143.73
Total Offense
Plays848869
Yards4,4485,220
Yards / Play5.26.0
Yards / Game370.7435.0
Punt Returns
Returns1410
Yards23863
Average17.06.3
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns1814
Yards377341
Average20.924.4
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5248
Yards2,2361,967
Average43.041.0
Interception Returns
Returns1113
Yards70140
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles1116
Lost86
Penalties
Penalties6174
Yards551702
Yards / Game45.958.5
Time of Possession
Per Game28:5131:09
Third Downs
Attempts170155
Conversions6767
Conversion %39.4%43.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2514
Conversions1610
Conversion %64.0%71.4%
Red Zone
Trips4848
Scores (TD + FG)4045
Score %83.3%93.8%
Touchdowns2631
TD %54.2%64.6%
Field Goals
Attempts2024
Made1621
Pct80.0%87.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3644
Made3643
Pct100.0%97.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →