Fourth Down Data
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GASO

Georgia Southern

EaglesPass-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference6-7#99 (-3.85)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

27· DOverall
Offense
47· CRating
33· DPer play
42· CConsistency
52· CBig plays
Defense
15· DRating
35· DPer play
31· DConsistency
Situational
20· DRed-zone O
20· DRed-zone D
83· B3rd down O
34· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.070
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.060
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.032
Defensive EPA/play
+0.044
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.2%
Def Success Rate
46.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.075
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.058
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.18

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.37
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.02
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.33
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.09
own return game
Return Defense
-0.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#99
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#58
market 41 higher
Recruiting Rank
#68
recruiting 31 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Georgia Southern ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
21th
Opp-adjusted defense
24th
Offensive EPA/play
33th
Defensive EPA/play
36th
Offensive success rate
49th
Explosiveness
53th
Defensive havoc
91th
Points per drive
53th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arkansas State2025OA -0.117 / -0.043similar: run defense, pass defense, offensive EPA3742Indiana2018OA +0.054 / -0.031similar: run defense, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3623Temple2017OA -0.067 / +0.055similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, havoc rate3594Miami2022OA -0.012 / -0.007similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, passing offense3435Rice2022OA -0.041 / -0.043similar: pass defense, turnover rate, takeaway rate327

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs The Citadel34-0W----
2vs UAB49-35W-7.0W63.5O
3@ Wisconsin14-35L+20.0L64.5U
4@ Ball State40-3W-6.5W61U
5vs Coastal Carolina38-28W-6.5W66P
7@ James Madison13-41L+4.5L58.5U
8vs UL Monroe38-28W-1.5W64O
9vs Georgia State44-27W----
10@ Texas State24-45L-2.0L70.5U
11@ Marshall33-38L-2.5L56.5O
12vs Old Dominion17-20L-6.0L60.5U
13@ App State27-55L+8.5L63O
16@ Ohio21-41L-2.5L48.75O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
6-5-1
54.5%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS1-6
Favorite ATS4-5
Underdog ATS0-3
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off56thRush Off34thRed Zone Off20th3rd Down Off84thPass Def9thRush Def63thRed Zone Def20th3rd Down Def34th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.00943th+0.03639th
Red Zone-0.12820th+0.13020th
Third Down+0.34184th+0.23434th
No Garbage Time-0.01539th+0.05030th
First Half+0.01548th+0.00153th
Second Half-0.03538th+0.07327th
Early Downs-0.09423th-0.00638th
Passing Downs+0.07256th+0.1999th
Standard Downs-0.04834th-0.05063th
Goal to Go-0.12024th-0.25781th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 60.5%Rush 39.5%
Havoc/Game
15.6
Havoc Rate
23.0%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
15.4
Yards/Game
419.5
Pts/Drive
2.18
3rd Down%
45.4%
3&Out%
9.1%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Georgia Southern vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatGeorgia SouthernOpponents
Scoring
Points392396
Points / Game30.230.5
First Downs
Total301262
Rushing95107
Passing180137
Penalty2618
Rushing
Attempts377454
Yards1,5242,098
Yards / Carry4.04.6
Yards / Game117.2161.4
Touchdowns1630
Passing
Attempts577396
Completions376249
Completion %65.2%62.9%
Yards3,9293,049
Yards / Attempt6.87.7
Touchdowns2620
Interceptions2013
Passer Rating130.30137.66
Total Offense
Plays954850
Yards5,4535,147
Yards / Play5.76.1
Yards / Game419.5395.9
Punt Returns
Returns277
Yards20491
Average7.613.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns4018
Yards951354
Average23.819.7
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts4860
Yards1,8822,451
Average39.240.9
Interception Returns
Returns1320
Yards154186
Touchdowns30
Fumbles
Fumbles2024
Lost118
Penalties
Penalties7681
Yards673791
Yards / Game51.860.8
Time of Possession
Per Game31:0828:52
Third Downs
Attempts185166
Conversions8464
Conversion %45.4%38.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2315
Conversions146
Conversion %60.9%40.0%
Red Zone
Trips5758
Scores (TD + FG)4850
Score %84.2%86.2%
Touchdowns2940
TD %50.9%69.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2817
Made2313
Pct82.1%76.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4547
Made4547
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts14
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →