Fourth Down Data
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ARST

Arkansas State

Red WolvesBalanced
Sun Belt Conference7-6#117 (-12.88)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

14· FOverall
Offense
6· FRating
37· DPer play
59· CConsistency
34· DBig plays
Defense
28· DRating
42· CPer play
36· DConsistency
Situational
53· CRed-zone O
18· DRed-zone D
65· C3rd down O
26· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.117
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.043
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.034
Defensive EPA/play
+0.007
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.1%
Def Success Rate
47.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.040
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.008
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.93

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.65
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.25
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.25
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.12
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#117
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#108
market 9 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 38 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Arkansas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
9th
Opp-adjusted defense
33th
Offensive EPA/play
38th
Defensive EPA/play
42th
Offensive success rate
59th
Explosiveness
34th
Defensive havoc
57th
Points per drive
33th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Hawai'i2024OA -0.018 / -0.015similar: rushing offense, pass defense, offensive EPA3842Akron2022OA -0.103 / -0.081similar: passing offense, run defense, pass defense3843Georgia Southern2023OA -0.070 / -0.060similar: run defense, pass defense, offensive EPA3744Colorado State2023OA -0.066 / -0.063similar: passing offense, run defense, TD drive rate3655Eastern Michigan2024OA -0.020 / -0.004similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, takeaway rate357

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Southeast Missouri State42-24W-14.0W59.5O
2@ Arkansas14-56L+28.8L73.25U
3vs Iowa State16-24L+15.5W53.5U
4@ Kennesaw State21-28L-4.5L58U
5@ UL Monroe16-28L+6.5L48.5U
6vs Texas State31-30W+7.5W49.5O
8@ South Alabama15-14W----
9vs Georgia Southern34-24W0.0W59.5U
10@ Troy23-10W+8.5W52.5U
11vs Southern Miss21-27L+4.5L55U
13vs Louisiana30-34L----
14@ App State30-29W+3.5W59.5U
17vs Missouri State34-28W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
4-9
30.8%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS6-3
Last 5 ATS
WLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off44thRush Off36thRed Zone Off53th3rd Down Off66thPass Def8thRush Def56thRed Zone Def18th3rd Down Def27th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.03139th+0.03131th
Red Zone+0.00653th+0.15818th
Third Down+0.16966th+0.15327th
No Garbage Time-0.03437th+0.00839th
First Half-0.06525th-0.03056th
Second Half+0.00054th+0.10310th
Early Downs-0.05529th-0.02654th
Passing Downs-0.03844th+0.1558th
Standard Downs-0.02936th-0.03056th
Goal to Go-0.11133th+0.24816th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 53.2%Rush 46.8%
Havoc/Game
13.3
Havoc Rate
18.9%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
382.7
Pts/Drive
1.93
3rd Down%
39.2%
3&Out%
20.4%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — Arkansas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArkansas StateOpponents
Scoring
Points327356
Points / Game25.227.4
First Downs
Total288273
Rushing94115
Passing159140
Penalty3518
Rushing
Attempts448495
Yards1,6012,189
Yards / Carry3.64.4
Yards / Game123.2168.4
Touchdowns1424
Passing
Attempts509392
Completions335268
Completion %65.8%68.4%
Yards3,3743,184
Yards / Attempt6.68.1
Touchdowns2021
Interceptions127
Passer Rating129.75150.70
Total Offense
Plays957887
Yards4,9755,373
Yards / Play5.26.1
Yards / Game382.7413.3
Punt Returns
Returns2511
Yards17067
Average6.86.1
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3325
Yards706471
Average21.418.8
Touchdowns20
Punting
Punts5967
Yards2,4382,803
Average41.341.8
Interception Returns
Returns712
Yards71105
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles2318
Lost119
Penalties
Penalties82116
Yards752999
Yards / Game57.876.8
Time of Possession
Per Game29:3230:40
Third Downs
Attempts194177
Conversions7674
Conversion %39.2%41.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2614
Conversions167
Conversion %61.5%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips5742
Scores (TD + FG)4635
Score %80.7%83.3%
Touchdowns3028
TD %52.6%66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts2718
Made2114
Pct77.8%77.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3742
Made3640
Pct97.3%95.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts13
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →