Fourth Down Data
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BALL

Ball State

CardinalsBalanced
Mid-American Conference4-8#113 (-7.09)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

15· DOverall
Offense
22· DRating
29· DPer play
63· CConsistency
46· CBig plays
Defense
16· DRating
20· DPer play
7· FConsistency
Situational
60· CRed-zone O
16· DRed-zone D
34· D3rd down O
20· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.048
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.110
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.039
Defensive EPA/play
+0.077
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.2%
Def Success Rate
51.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.115
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.025
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.93

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.22
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.48
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.59
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.17
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#113
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
recruiting 36 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Ball State ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
31th
Opp-adjusted defense
14th
Offensive EPA/play
30th
Defensive EPA/play
20th
Offensive success rate
58th
Explosiveness
46th
Defensive havoc
15th
Points per drive
30th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Indiana2018OA +0.054 / -0.031similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, defensive EPA3722UCLA2018OA +0.036 / -0.086similar: run defense, havoc rate, defensive success rate3533Middle Tennessee2020OA -0.016 / -0.033similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, turnover rate3504Arkansas State2024OA +0.004 / -0.063similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3285Illinois2018OA +0.057 / -0.155similar: defensive success rate, turnover rate, takeaway rate326

2018 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Central Connecticut State42-6W-19.5W61.5U
2@ Notre Dame16-24L+34.0W60.5U
3@ Indiana10-38L+15.5L61.5U
4vs Western Kentucky20-28L-3.0L52.5U
5vs Kent State52-24W-7.0W62O
6vs Northern Illinois16-24L+3.0L52.5U
7@ Central Michigan24-23W+2.5W54.5U
8vs Eastern Michigan20-42L+2.5L45O
9@ Ohio14-52L+10.5L66P
10@ Toledo13-45L+19.5L64U
12vs Western Michigan42-41W+10.0W58O
13@ Miami (OH)21-42L+16.5L55O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
4-7-1
36.4%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS2-1
Underdog ATS3-6
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off53thRush Off30thRed Zone Off61th3rd Down Off34thPass Def6thRush Def39thRed Zone Def17th3rd Down Def20th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.02137th+0.07119th
Red Zone+0.05961th+0.18517th
Third Down-0.00834th+0.20420th
No Garbage Time-0.04327th+0.08817th
First Half-0.05828th+0.08920th
Second Half+0.01958th+0.05134th
Early Downs-0.03636th+0.03130th
Passing Downs+0.01453th+0.1996th
Standard Downs-0.04030th+0.01339th
Goal to Go-0.26310th+0.08252th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.5%Rush 48.5%
Havoc/Game
12.1
Havoc Rate
15.4%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
15.7
Yards/Game
408.6
Pts/Drive
1.93
3rd Down%
42.6%
3&Out%
18.0%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 12 games — Ball State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBall StateOpponents
Scoring
Points290389
Points / Game24.232.4
First Downs
Total283296
Rushing111146
Passing147125
Penalty2525
Rushing
Attempts448560
Yards1,8682,878
Yards / Carry4.25.1
Yards / Game155.7239.8
Touchdowns2036
Passing
Attempts476353
Completions288229
Completion %60.5%64.9%
Yards3,0352,525
Yards / Attempt6.47.2
Touchdowns1713
Interceptions1212
Passer Rating120.81130.31
Total Offense
Plays924913
Yards4,9035,403
Yards / Play5.35.9
Yards / Game408.6450.3
Punt Returns
Returns1018
Yards87181
Average8.710.1
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns3533
Yards588662
Average16.820.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5950
Yards2,3311,966
Average39.539.3
Interception Returns
Returns1212
Yards92104
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1714
Lost106
Penalties
Penalties8284
Yards801740
Yards / Game66.861.7
Time of Possession
Per Game27:5432:06
Third Downs
Attempts190166
Conversions8171
Conversion %42.6%42.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2520
Conversions1510
Conversion %60.0%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips4255
Scores (TD + FG)3548
Score %83.3%87.3%
Touchdowns2840
TD %66.7%72.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1615
Made1111
Pct68.8%73.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3549
Made3548
Pct100.0%98.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts22
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →