Fourth Down Data
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MIZ

Missouri

TigersBalanced
Southeastern Conference6-7#89 (-2.33)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

33· DOverall
Offense
60· CRating
54· CPer play
61· CConsistency
60· CBig plays
Defense
12· FRating
14· FPer play
25· DConsistency
Situational
70· BRed-zone O
16· DRed-zone D
83· B3rd down O
53· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.061
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.103
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.020
Defensive EPA/play
+0.106
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.2%
Def Success Rate
49.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.086
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.117
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.29

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.48
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.82
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.10
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
-0.15
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#89
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#67
market 22 higher
Recruiting Rank
#44
recruiting 45 spots higher
7 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Missouri ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
71th
Opp-adjusted defense
14th
Offensive EPA/play
54th
Defensive EPA/play
14th
Offensive success rate
61th
Explosiveness
61th
Defensive havoc
45th
Points per drive
56th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Oregon2026OA +0.017 / -0.041similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, TD drive rate3712North Texas2026OA +0.063 / -0.042similar: passing offense, run defense, turnover rate3563Texas Tech2024OA +0.014 / -0.036similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3494Arizona State2018OA +0.072 / -0.049similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3485Arkansas State2024OA +0.004 / -0.063similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, defensive success rate344

2021 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Central Michigan34-24W-14.3L60.5U
2@ Kentucky28-35L+5.5L52.5O
3vs Southeast Missouri State59-28W-44.5L79O
4@ Boston College34-41L-1.0L58O
5vs Tennessee24-62L-3.0L65O
6vs North Texas48-35W-19.0L69O
7vs Texas A&M14-35L+9.0L60.5U
9@ Vanderbilt37-28W-16.3L62.5O
10@ Georgia6-43L+38.0W59U
11vs South Carolina31-28W-1.0W55O
12vs Florida24-23W+8.5W69.5U
13@ Arkansas17-34L----
17@ Army22-24L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-9
30.8%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS1-6
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off48thRush Off68thRed Zone Off71th3rd Down Off83thPass Def10thRush Def7thRed Zone Def17th3rd Down Def53th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03457th+0.1415th
Red Zone+0.08071th+0.15317th
Third Down+0.25183th+0.05553th
No Garbage Time+0.02655th+0.10912th
First Half+0.02653th+0.13411th
Second Half+0.04268th+0.1477th
Early Downs-0.00750th+0.10211th
Passing Downs-0.00548th+0.15110th
Standard Downs+0.05468th+0.1367th
Goal to Go+0.05867th+0.21817th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.6%Rush 50.4%
Havoc/Game
12.7
Havoc Rate
18.2%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
413.7
Pts/Drive
2.29
3rd Down%
44.0%
3&Out%
15.6%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 13 games — Missouri vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMissouriOpponents
Scoring
Points378440
Points / Game29.133.8
First Downs
Total282297
Rushing119156
Passing138115
Penalty2526
Rushing
Attempts463557
Yards2,3422,963
Yards / Carry5.15.3
Yards / Game180.2227.9
Touchdowns2232
Passing
Attempts455329
Completions301196
Completion %66.2%59.6%
Yards3,0362,688
Yards / Attempt6.78.2
Touchdowns1925
Interceptions1111
Passer Rating131.15146.59
Total Offense
Plays918886
Yards5,3785,651
Yards / Play5.96.4
Yards / Game413.7434.7
Punt Returns
Returns1315
Yards69127
Average5.38.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns325
Yards60683
Average18.916.6
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5650
Yards2,3072,020
Average41.240.4
Interception Returns
Returns1111
Yards9195
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles411
Lost25
Penalties
Penalties8365
Yards770567
Yards / Game59.243.6
Time of Possession
Per Game30:2829:32
Third Downs
Attempts191166
Conversions8472
Conversion %44.0%43.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1922
Conversions1118
Conversion %57.9%81.8%
Red Zone
Trips4054
Scores (TD + FG)3650
Score %90.0%92.6%
Touchdowns2641
TD %65.0%75.9%
Field Goals
Attempts2517
Made2313
Pct92.0%76.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4157
Made4157
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts30
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →