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PUR
Purdue
BoilermakersPass-HeavyBig Ten Conference2-4#98 (-4.62)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
24· DOverall
Offense
58· CRating
61· CPer play
70· BConsistency
42· CBig plays
Defense
32· DRating
35· DPer play
30· DConsistency
Situational
41· CRed-zone O
71· BRed-zone D
23· D3rd down O
5· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.014
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.015
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.045
Defensive EPA/play
+0.063
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.9%
Def Success Rate
49.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.018
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.108
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.20
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-2.99
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.08
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.48
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
-1.42
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#98
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#47
market 51 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile
Peer Context
Where Purdue ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense67th
Opp-adjusted defense34th
Offensive EPA/play62th
Defensive EPA/play35th
Offensive success rate71th
Explosiveness42th
Defensive havoc13th
Points per drive54th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Michigan State2022OA +0.034 / -0.048similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, rushing offense3682Illinois2023OA -0.002 / -0.028similar: run defense, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3333Arkansas State2020OA +0.026 / -0.039similar: pass defense, rushing offense, offensive success rate3254East Carolina2019OA +0.024 / -0.138similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, turnover rate3165Coastal Carolina2026OA +0.044 / +0.010similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, havoc rate315
2020 Schedule & Results
6 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | vs Iowa | 24-20 | W | +3.0 | W | 53 | U |
| 9 | @ Illinois | 31-24 | W | -7.0 | P | 58.5 | U |
| 11 | vs Northwestern | 20-27 | L | -1.0 | L | 60 | O |
| 12 | @ Minnesota | 31-34 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 13 | vs Rutgers | 30-37 | L | -11.0 | L | 62 | O |
| 14 | vs Nebraska | 27-37 | L | -2.0 | L | 62.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
1-4-1
20.0%
O/U Record
3-3
50.0%
Straight Up
2-4
33.3%
Home ATS1-3
Away ATS0-1
Favorite ATS0-3
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
PLLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.045 | 62th | +0.063 | 34th |
| Red Zone | -0.045 | 41th | -0.095 | 72th |
| Third Down | -0.094 | 23th | +0.397 | 5th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.045 | 62th | +0.049 | 41th |
| First Half | +0.033 | 57th | +0.112 | 22th |
| Second Half | +0.056 | 63th | +0.004 | 55th |
| Early Downs | +0.072 | 80th | +0.011 | 48th |
| Passing Downs | -0.029 | 37th | +0.130 | 28th |
| Standard Downs | +0.081 | 79th | +0.027 | 46th |
| Goal to Go | -0.477 | 6th | +0.348 | 10th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 63.5%Rush 36.5%
Havoc/Game
10.5
Havoc Rate
13.8%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
16.0
Yards/Game
390.5
Pts/Drive
2.20
3rd Down%
37.5%
3&Out%
20.0%
Team Statistics
2020 season totals across 6 games — Purdue vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Purdue | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 163 | 179 |
| Points / Game | 27.2 | 29.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 137 | 131 |
| Rushing | 36 | 50 |
| Passing | 87 | 67 |
| Penalty | 14 | 14 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 150 | 253 |
| Yards | 489 | 869 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.3 | 3.4 |
| Yards / Game | 81.5 | 144.8 |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 12 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 261 | 192 |
| Completions | 176 | 126 |
| Completion % | 67.4% | 65.6% |
| Yards | 1,854 | 1,525 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.1 | 7.9 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 9 |
| Interceptions | 4 | 3 |
| Passer Rating | 143.00 | 144.69 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 411 | 445 |
| Yards | 2,343 | 2,394 |
| Yards / Play | 5.7 | 5.4 |
| Yards / Game | 390.5 | 399.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 3 | 7 |
| Yards | 16 | 117 |
| Average | 5.3 | 16.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 13 |
| Yards | 401 | 356 |
| Average | 20.1 | 27.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 27 | 21 |
| Yards | 990 | 842 |
| Average | 36.7 | 40.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 3 | 4 |
| Yards | 20 | 34 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 9 | 9 |
| Lost | 3 | 4 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 42 | 44 |
| Yards | 359 | 438 |
| Yards / Game | 59.8 | 73.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 27:36 | 32:24 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 80 | 87 |
| Conversions | 30 | 38 |
| Conversion % | 37.5% | 43.7% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 11 | 13 |
| Conversions | 6 | 6 |
| Conversion % | 54.5% | 46.2% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 28 | 32 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 21 | 26 |
| Score % | 75.0% | 81.3% |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 19 |
| TD % | 53.6% | 59.4% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 9 | 9 |
| Made | 7 | 9 |
| Pct | 77.8% | 100.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 22 |
| Made | 20 | 20 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 90.9% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.