Fourth Down Data
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WAKE

Wake Forest

Demon DeaconsRun-Heavy
Atlantic Coast Conference4-8#86 (-2.40)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

37· DOverall
Offense
21· DRating
15· DPer play
57· CConsistency
37· DBig plays
Defense
56· CRating
58· CPer play
78· BConsistency
Situational
4· FRed-zone O
90· A-Red-zone D
7· F3rd down O
49· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.025
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.010
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.084
Defensive EPA/play
-0.019
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.8%
Def Success Rate
44.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.065
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.027
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.62

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.12
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.26
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.22
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.07
own return game
Return Defense
+0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#86
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#89
model 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#61
recruiting 25 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Wake Forest ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
36th
Opp-adjusted defense
57th
Offensive EPA/play
16th
Defensive EPA/play
59th
Offensive success rate
55th
Explosiveness
37th
Defensive havoc
22th
Points per drive
14th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Virginia2024OA -0.035 / -0.006similar: offensive EPA, run defense, TD drive rate3522Auburn2024OA -0.000 / +0.003similar: offensive success rate, takeaway rate, defensive success rate3493Virginia2022OA -0.103 / +0.066similar: turnover rate, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3424Georgia Tech2026OA -0.049 / -0.024similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, pass defense3405Tulsa2025OA -0.071 / -0.025similar: run defense, offensive success rate, havoc rate330

2023 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Elon37-17W----
2vs Vanderbilt36-20W-10.0W56P
3@ Old Dominion27-24W-14.0L61.5U
4vs Georgia Tech16-30L-4.0L60U
6@ Clemson12-17L+21.0W51.5U
7@ Virginia Tech13-30L+1.5L48U
8vs Pittsburgh21-17W-2.0W47.5U
9vs Florida State16-41L+12.5W44O
10@ Duke21-24L----
11vs NC State6-26L+2.5L44U
12@ Notre Dame7-45L+24.5L46.5O
13@ Syracuse31-35L+3.0L44O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
5-6-1
45.5%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS2-5
Last 5 ATS
LWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off25thRush Off19thRed Zone Off4th3rd Down Off7thPass Def14thRush Def84thRed Zone Def91th3rd Down Def50th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.07417th-0.00353th
Red Zone-0.2464th-0.21491th
Third Down-0.0957th+0.17250th
No Garbage Time-0.07320th-0.00453th
First Half-0.1398th+0.02441th
Second Half-0.01443th-0.03359th
Early Downs-0.05739th-0.11685th
Passing Downs-0.04825th+0.16714th
Standard Downs-0.08819th-0.09884th
Goal to Go-0.7751th-0.61097th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 40.7%Rush 59.3%
Havoc/Game
11.6
Havoc Rate
16.5%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
14.2
Yards/Game
327.8
Pts/Drive
1.62
3rd Down%
34.2%
3&Out%
22.5%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 12 games — Wake Forest vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWake ForestOpponents
Scoring
Points243326
Points / Game20.327.2
First Downs
Total240224
Rushing10591
Passing106119
Penalty2914
Rushing
Attempts468440
Yards1,5651,852
Yards / Carry3.34.2
Yards / Game130.4154.3
Touchdowns1313
Passing
Attempts321354
Completions194218
Completion %60.4%61.6%
Yards2,3682,788
Yards / Attempt7.47.9
Touchdowns1424
Interceptions118
Passer Rating129.94145.59
Total Offense
Plays789794
Yards3,9334,640
Yards / Play5.05.8
Yards / Game327.8386.7
Punt Returns
Returns1616
Yards14871
Average9.34.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2316
Yards528339
Average23.021.2
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5855
Yards2,4102,352
Average41.642.8
Interception Returns
Returns811
Yards141174
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles1912
Lost118
Penalties
Penalties4980
Yards466756
Yards / Game38.863.0
Time of Possession
Per Game29:0530:55
Third Downs
Attempts161174
Conversions5570
Conversion %34.2%40.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1919
Conversions812
Conversion %42.1%63.2%
Red Zone
Trips4539
Scores (TD + FG)3530
Score %77.8%76.9%
Touchdowns2120
TD %46.7%51.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2223
Made1515
Pct68.2%65.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2339
Made2239
Pct95.7%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts61
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →