Fourth Down Data
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ULM

UL Monroe

WarhawksBalanced
Sun Belt Conference6-6#94 (-3.33)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

29· DOverall
Offense
45· CRating
75· BPer play
82· BConsistency
92· A-Big plays
Defense
23· DRating
28· DPer play
26· DConsistency
Situational
20· DRed-zone O
32· DRed-zone D
72· B3rd down O
26· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.035
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.075
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.065
Defensive EPA/play
+0.055
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.4%
Def Success Rate
48.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.010
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.019
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.25

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.55
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.19
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.33
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.00
own return game
Return Defense
-0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#94
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
recruiting 17 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UL Monroe ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
64th
Opp-adjusted defense
23th
Offensive EPA/play
76th
Defensive EPA/play
28th
Offensive success rate
73th
Explosiveness
92th
Defensive havoc
67th
Points per drive
55th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Houston2026OA +0.008 / -0.042similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, havoc rate3572Kansas2025OA +0.147 / -0.040similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, offensive success rate3403Virginia2020OA +0.005 / -0.006similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, rushing offense3344Tulane2021OA +0.011 / -0.020similar: turnover rate, pass defense, defensive EPA3285Western Michigan2018OA +0.035 / -0.079similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, run defense320

2018 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Southeastern Louisiana34-31W-21.0L74U
2@ Southern Miss21-20W+5.0W67.5U
3@ Texas A&M10-48L+28.0L66U
4vs Troy27-35L+4.5L59O
5@ Georgia State14-46L-6.0L65U
6@ Ole Miss21-70L+23.5L76O
7@ Coastal Carolina45-20W+6.5W67U
8vs Texas State20-14W-10.5L60U
10vs Georgia Southern44-25W+7.0W60.5O
11@ South Alabama38-10W-7.5W63U
12@ Arkansas State17-31L+7.5L68U
13vs Louisiana28-31L-1.5L71U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
3-9
25.0%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS1-4
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS1-4
Underdog ATS3-4
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off27thRush Off86thRed Zone Off20th3rd Down Off73thPass Def35thRush Def27thRed Zone Def32th3rd Down Def27th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03563th+0.05723th
Red Zone-0.11820th+0.09632th
Third Down+0.16173th+0.16227th
No Garbage Time+0.05774th+0.06323th
First Half+0.10484th+0.2043th
Second Half-0.03733th-0.11889th
Early Downs+0.08387th+0.03032th
Passing Downs-0.06327th+0.08135th
Standard Downs+0.08786th+0.04527th
Goal to Go+0.00239th+0.26920th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.3%Rush 51.7%
Havoc/Game
14.3
Havoc Rate
20.5%
TO Margin
-1.0
Explosive/G
15.4
Yards/Game
414.8
Pts/Drive
2.25
3rd Down%
40.9%
3&Out%
21.3%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 12 games — UL Monroe vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUL MonroeOpponents
Scoring
Points319381
Points / Game26.631.8
First Downs
Total246269
Rushing106116
Passing122130
Penalty1823
Rushing
Attempts414484
Yards2,0082,192
Yards / Carry4.94.5
Yards / Game167.3182.7
Touchdowns2219
Passing
Attempts387333
Completions239239
Completion %61.8%71.8%
Yards2,9702,965
Yards / Attempt7.78.9
Touchdowns1725
Interceptions125
Passer Rating134.52168.34
Total Offense
Plays801817
Yards4,9785,157
Yards / Play6.26.3
Yards / Game414.8429.8
Punt Returns
Returns717
Yards93192
Average13.311.3
Touchdowns12
Kickoff Returns
Returns3728
Yards689495
Average18.617.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5453
Yards2,2022,210
Average40.841.7
Interception Returns
Returns512
Yards160172
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles1615
Lost116
Penalties
Penalties6480
Yards588722
Yards / Game49.060.2
Time of Possession
Per Game27:4032:18
Third Downs
Attempts154160
Conversions6369
Conversion %40.9%43.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1612
Conversions97
Conversion %56.3%58.3%
Red Zone
Trips4941
Scores (TD + FG)3637
Score %73.5%90.2%
Touchdowns2728
TD %55.1%68.3%
Field Goals
Attempts1424
Made913
Pct64.3%54.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4148
Made3846
Pct92.7%95.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →