Fourth Down Data
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OKST

Oklahoma State

CowboysBalanced
Big 12 Conference10-4#54 (+1.65)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

60· COverall
Offense
61· CRating
62· CPer play
54· CConsistency
65· CBig plays
Defense
59· CRating
47· CPer play
76· BConsistency
Situational
60· CRed-zone O
39· DRed-zone D
24· D3rd down O
12· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.053
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.010
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.040
Defensive EPA/play
+0.018
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.3%
Def Success Rate
43.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.022
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.002
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.29

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.02
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.79
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.83
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.10
own return game
Return Defense
+0.12
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#54
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#16
AP 38 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#61
model 7 higher
Recruiting Rank
#49
recruiting 5 spots higher
7 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Oklahoma State ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
72th
Opp-adjusted defense
58th
Offensive EPA/play
62th
Defensive EPA/play
47th
Offensive success rate
50th
Explosiveness
65th
Defensive havoc
32th
Points per drive
59th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Texas Tech2022OA +0.017 / +0.036similar: rushing offense, passing offense, offensive EPA3742Iowa State2025OA +0.008 / +0.035similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3673Fresno State2023OA +0.055 / -0.018similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, offensive success rate3574Iowa State2024OA +0.039 / +0.005similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense3395Texas Tech2023OA -0.073 / +0.054similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, havoc rate338

2023 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Central Arkansas27-13W-25.5L59.5U
2@ Arizona State27-15W-2.5W53.5U
3vs South Alabama7-33L-7.0L48.5U
4@ Iowa State27-34L+3.5L35.75O
6vs Kansas State29-21W----
7vs Kansas39-32W+3.0W58O
8@ West Virginia48-34W+3.5W50O
9vs Cincinnati45-13W-7.5W53.5O
10vs Oklahoma27-24W+6.0W61U
11@ UCF3-45L-2.5L64.5U
12@ Houston43-30W-7.0W59O
13vs BYU40-34W-17.0L56.5O
14@ Texas21-49L+15.0L55.5O
18vs Texas A&M31-23W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-6
57.1%
O/U Record
8-6
57.1%
Straight Up
10-4
71.4%
Home ATS5-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS3-4
Underdog ATS5-2
Last 5 ATS
LWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off78thRush Off44thRed Zone Off60th3rd Down Off24thPass Def85thRush Def19thRed Zone Def39th3rd Down Def12th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03661th+0.02742th
Red Zone+0.05260th+0.03639th
Third Down+0.07824th+0.40112th
No Garbage Time+0.04061th+0.01847th
First Half-0.03730th+0.09717th
Second Half+0.11687th-0.04367th
Early Downs-0.04845th+0.05017th
Passing Downs+0.16278th-0.05385th
Standard Downs-0.03044th+0.07919th
Goal to Go+0.06157th+0.4922th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 55.9%Rush 44.1%
Havoc/Game
11.8
Havoc Rate
17.0%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
16.7
Yards/Game
431.8
Pts/Drive
2.29
3rd Down%
38.8%
3&Out%
18.0%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 14 games — Oklahoma State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOklahoma StateOpponents
Scoring
Points414400
Points / Game29.628.6
First Downs
Total303280
Rushing98120
Passing186145
Penalty1915
Rushing
Attempts449512
Yards2,1742,335
Yards / Carry4.84.6
Yards / Game155.3166.8
Touchdowns2923
Passing
Attempts570443
Completions344269
Completion %60.4%60.7%
Yards3,8713,850
Yards / Attempt6.88.7
Touchdowns1827
Interceptions1613
Passer Rating122.20147.97
Total Offense
Plays1,019955
Yards6,0456,185
Yards / Play5.96.5
Yards / Game431.8441.8
Punt Returns
Returns1218
Yards4253
Average3.52.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3219
Yards651320
Average20.316.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6663
Yards2,7492,750
Average41.743.7
Interception Returns
Returns1316
Yards194162
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles1422
Lost510
Penalties
Penalties7079
Yards579633
Yards / Game41.445.2
Time of Possession
Per Game29:4330:04
Third Downs
Attempts206196
Conversions8082
Conversion %38.8%41.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2025
Conversions116
Conversion %55.0%24.0%
Red Zone
Trips6237
Scores (TD + FG)5532
Score %88.7%86.5%
Touchdowns3725
TD %59.7%67.6%
Field Goals
Attempts3418
Made2713
Pct79.4%72.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4545
Made4343
Pct95.6%95.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts37
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →