Fourth Down Data
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ISU

Iowa State

CyclonesBalanced
Big 12 Conference11-3#23 (+6.11)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

83· BOverall
Offense
75· BRating
81· BPer play
64· CConsistency
64· CBig plays
Defense
76· BRating
52· CPer play
57· CConsistency
Situational
67· CRed-zone O
21· DRed-zone D
77· B3rd down O
49· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.039
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.005
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.086
Defensive EPA/play
-0.008
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.7%
Def Success Rate
44.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.094
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.036
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.53

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.52
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.34
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.84
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.07
own return game
Return Defense
-0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#23
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#15
AP 8 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#25
model 2 higher
Recruiting Rank
#63
model 40 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Iowa State ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
84th
Opp-adjusted defense
59th
Offensive EPA/play
82th
Defensive EPA/play
53th
Offensive success rate
72th
Explosiveness
65th
Defensive havoc
35th
Points per drive
70th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Ball State2019OA +0.005 / -0.021similar: takeaway rate, passing offense, defensive EPA3942Utah2026OA +0.030 / -0.011similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, run defense3883Kansas State2022OA +0.082 / +0.085similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, takeaway rate3784Memphis2022OA +0.049 / +0.067similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, defensive EPA3685Fresno State2023OA +0.055 / -0.018similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, defensive success rate365

2024 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs North Dakota21-3W-28.5L51.5U
2@ Iowa20-19W+2.5W36.5O
4vs Arkansas State52-7W-21.0W51.5O
5@ Houston20-0W-14.5W43.5U
6vs Baylor43-21W-13.0W44.5O
7@ West Virginia28-16W-3.0W51.5U
8vs UCF38-35W-13.5L48.5O
10vs Texas Tech22-23L-14.0L56U
11@ Kansas36-45L-3.0L50O
12vs Cincinnati34-17W-8.5W53.5U
13@ Utah31-28W-7.5L42O
14vs Kansas State29-21W-2.5W51.5U
15@ Arizona State19-45L+1.5L49.5O
18@ Miami42-41W+3.5W55.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-6
57.1%
O/U Record
8-6
57.1%
Straight Up
11-3
78.6%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS6-5
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
WLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off92thRush Off75thRed Zone Off68th3rd Down Off78thPass Def41thRush Def58thRed Zone Def21th3rd Down Def49th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.10585th-0.00953th
Red Zone+0.08968th+0.13021th
Third Down+0.22378th+0.08049th
No Garbage Time+0.09483th-0.00852th
First Half+0.03965th+0.01639th
Second Half+0.16696th-0.03969th
Early Downs-0.00157th-0.06366th
Passing Downs+0.19992th+0.03341th
Standard Downs+0.05875th-0.03258th
Goal to Go+0.06159th+0.11430th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.8%Rush 52.2%
Havoc/Game
10.6
Havoc Rate
16.8%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
16.1
Yards/Game
416.2
Pts/Drive
2.53
3rd Down%
42.7%
3&Out%
15.6%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 14 games — Iowa State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatIowa StateOpponents
Scoring
Points435321
Points / Game31.122.9
First Downs
Total317241
Rushing122121
Passing160111
Penalty359
Rushing
Attempts516493
Yards2,2472,637
Yards / Carry4.45.3
Yards / Game160.5188.4
Touchdowns2719
Passing
Attempts473372
Completions277196
Completion %58.6%52.7%
Yards3,5802,318
Yards / Attempt7.66.2
Touchdowns2518
Interceptions1015
Passer Rating135.35112.93
Total Offense
Plays989865
Yards5,8274,955
Yards / Play5.95.7
Yards / Game416.2353.9
Punt Returns
Returns1413
Yards224109
Average16.08.4
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns1030
Yards203619
Average20.320.6
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5465
Yards2,2802,685
Average42.241.3
Interception Returns
Returns1510
Yards101298
Touchdowns03
Fumbles
Fumbles1116
Lost59
Penalties
Penalties5392
Yards392789
Yards / Game28.056.4
Time of Possession
Per Game31:5928:01
Third Downs
Attempts199184
Conversions8573
Conversion %42.7%39.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2522
Conversions2012
Conversion %80.0%54.5%
Red Zone
Trips6335
Scores (TD + FG)5531
Score %87.3%88.6%
Touchdowns4022
TD %63.5%62.9%
Field Goals
Attempts2817
Made2112
Pct75.0%70.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4837
Made4637
Pct95.8%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts54
Made31
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →