Fourth Down Data
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WKU

Western Kentucky

HilltoppersPass-Heavy
Conference USA9-5#42 (+2.97)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

69· COverall
Offense
68· CRating
75· BPer play
54· CConsistency
84· BBig plays
Defense
65· CRating
73· BPer play
62· CConsistency
Situational
33· DRed-zone O
37· DRed-zone D
70· B3rd down O
58· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.067
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.031
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.072
Defensive EPA/play
-0.090
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.9%
Def Success Rate
45.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.162
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.037
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.51

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.24
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.42
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.93
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.05
own return game
Return Defense
+0.31
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#42
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#22
market 20 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 33 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Western Kentucky ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
73th
Opp-adjusted defense
64th
Offensive EPA/play
76th
Defensive EPA/play
74th
Offensive success rate
58th
Explosiveness
84th
Defensive havoc
40th
Points per drive
67th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Coastal Carolina2023OA +0.052 / -0.014similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, passing offense3882SMU2020OA +0.035 / -0.008similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, defensive success rate3663Iowa State2024OA +0.039 / +0.005similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, havoc rate3614Florida Atlantic2019OA +0.030 / +0.087similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, takeaway rate3495Louisiana Tech2019OA -0.057 / +0.033similar: run defense, takeaway rate, defensive success rate346

2022 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs Austin Peay38-27W-28.0L67U
1@ Hawai'i49-17W-16.0W67.5U
3@ Indiana30-33L+6.5W61O
4vs Florida International73-0W-31.0W65.5O
5vs Troy27-34L-5.0L54.5O
6@ UTSA28-31L+6.5W72.5U
7@ Middle Tennessee35-17W-1.5W57.5U
8vs UAB20-17W----
9vs North Texas13-40L-10.0L70U
10@ Charlotte59-7W-16.5W72U
11vs Rice45-10W-13.0W61.5U
12@ Auburn17-41L+5.5L52O
13@ Florida Atlantic32-31W-7.0L61O
17@ South Alabama44-23W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-5
64.3%
O/U Record
6-8
42.9%
Straight Up
9-5
64.3%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS6-2
Favorite ATS6-4
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
WWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off76thRush Off73thRed Zone Off33th3rd Down Off71thPass Def90thRush Def49thRed Zone Def37th3rd Down Def59th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07680th-0.07974th
Red Zone-0.07133th+0.05037th
Third Down+0.19171th+0.02159th
No Garbage Time+0.08178th-0.08875th
First Half+0.15992th-0.13084th
Second Half-0.00855th-0.02653th
Early Downs+0.06883th-0.05361th
Passing Downs+0.11876th-0.19590th
Standard Downs+0.05473th-0.01549th
Goal to Go-0.00655th-0.03450th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 60.1%Rush 39.9%
Havoc/Game
12.9
Havoc Rate
17.4%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
17.4
Yards/Game
497.1
Pts/Drive
2.51
3rd Down%
41.5%
3&Out%
12.8%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 14 games — Western Kentucky vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWestern KentuckyOpponents
Scoring
Points510328
Points / Game36.423.4
First Downs
Total344304
Rushing113116
Passing207161
Penalty2427
Rushing
Attempts414528
Yards2,0312,070
Yards / Carry4.93.9
Yards / Game145.1147.9
Touchdowns1517
Passing
Attempts623498
Completions401310
Completion %64.4%62.2%
Yards4,9293,304
Yards / Attempt7.96.6
Touchdowns4321
Interceptions1219
Passer Rating149.75124.26
Total Offense
Plays1,0371,026
Yards6,9605,374
Yards / Play6.75.2
Yards / Game497.1383.9
Punt Returns
Returns159
Yards13578
Average9.08.7
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2341
Yards481777
Average20.919.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4473
Yards1,8583,231
Average42.244.3
Interception Returns
Returns1912
Yards31453
Touchdowns41
Fumbles
Fumbles1521
Lost913
Penalties
Penalties8792
Yards805824
Yards / Game57.558.9
Time of Possession
Per Game28:5231:08
Third Downs
Attempts188210
Conversions7875
Conversion %41.5%35.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3631
Conversions1514
Conversion %41.7%45.2%
Red Zone
Trips6045
Scores (TD + FG)4840
Score %80.0%88.9%
Touchdowns3527
TD %58.3%60.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2520
Made1819
Pct72.0%95.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6437
Made6435
Pct100.0%94.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →