Fourth Down Data
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CCU

Coastal Carolina

ChanticleersBalanced
Sun Belt Conference8-5#68 (-0.17)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

50· COverall
Offense
56· CRating
67· CPer play
53· CConsistency
57· CBig plays
Defense
64· CRating
54· CPer play
53· CConsistency
Situational
13· FRed-zone O
73· BRed-zone D
81· B3rd down O
56· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.052
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.014
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.059
Defensive EPA/play
-0.008
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.7%
Def Success Rate
45.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.067
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.028
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.23

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.54
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.61
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.64
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.22
own return game
Return Defense
-0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#68
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#77
model 9 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
model 8 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Coastal Carolina ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
71th
Opp-adjusted defense
43th
Offensive EPA/play
68th
Defensive EPA/play
54th
Offensive success rate
53th
Explosiveness
57th
Defensive havoc
37th
Points per drive
54th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Western Kentucky2022OA +0.067 / +0.031similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, passing offense3852Florida Atlantic2022OA -0.010 / +0.001similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, run defense3513Illinois2024OA +0.023 / -0.006similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, pass defense3484Florida International2019OA -0.030 / -0.046similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, TD drive rate3475Arkansas State2019OA +0.036 / -0.048similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, run defense343

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ UCLA13-27L+14.5W66U
2vs Jacksonville State30-16W-13.5W61U
3vs Duquesne66-7W-5.5L62.5U
4vs Georgia State17-30L----
5@ Georgia Southern28-38L+6.5L66P
7@ App State27-24W----
8@ Arkansas State27-17W-10.5L60.5U
9vs Marshall34-6W+4.0W45U
10@ Old Dominion28-24W-1.0W50.5O
11vs Texas State31-23W+1.0W59U
12@ Army21-28L-4.5L43.5O
13vs James Madison14-56L+9.0L50.5O
17@ San José State24-14W+10.0W54U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
3-8-1
27.3%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS5-2
Last 5 ATS
WWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off96thRush Off21thRed Zone Off13th3rd Down Off81thPass Def53thRush Def52thRed Zone Def73th3rd Down Def56th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06973th-0.00555th
Red Zone-0.19313th-0.12273th
Third Down+0.33981th+0.14456th
No Garbage Time+0.06171th-0.03064th
First Half+0.11177th+0.02042th
Second Half+0.02961th-0.02957th
Early Downs-0.07232th-0.05356th
Passing Downs+0.35496th+0.02853th
Standard Downs-0.08321th-0.02352th
Goal to Go-0.26010th-0.20076th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.9%Rush 53.1%
Havoc/Game
11.6
Havoc Rate
17.4%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
15.3
Yards/Game
416.2
Pts/Drive
2.23
3rd Down%
44.2%
3&Out%
15.8%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Coastal Carolina vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatCoastal CarolinaOpponents
Scoring
Points360310
Points / Game27.723.8
First Downs
Total275265
Rushing98120
Passing144120
Penalty3325
Rushing
Attempts465462
Yards2,0102,181
Yards / Carry4.34.7
Yards / Game154.6167.8
Touchdowns1715
Passing
Attempts410391
Completions273223
Completion %66.6%57.0%
Yards3,4012,753
Yards / Attempt8.37.0
Touchdowns2421
Interceptions914
Passer Rating151.19126.74
Total Offense
Plays875853
Yards5,4114,934
Yards / Play6.25.8
Yards / Game416.2379.5
Punt Returns
Returns147
Yards6985
Average4.912.1
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns3012
Yards482259
Average16.121.6
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4048
Yards1,5792,045
Average39.542.6
Interception Returns
Returns149
Yards28330
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles1714
Lost89
Penalties
Penalties73106
Yards749951
Yards / Game57.673.2
Time of Possession
Per Game31:5028:09
Third Downs
Attempts172168
Conversions7670
Conversion %44.2%41.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2425
Conversions912
Conversion %37.5%48.0%
Red Zone
Trips5449
Scores (TD + FG)4138
Score %75.9%77.6%
Touchdowns2628
TD %48.1%57.1%
Field Goals
Attempts2521
Made1715
Pct68.0%71.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4338
Made4337
Pct100.0%97.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →