Fourth Down Data
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ILL

Illinois

Fighting IlliniBalanced
Big Ten Conference10-3#37 (+3.64)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

72· BOverall
Offense
78· BRating
67· CPer play
75· BConsistency
71· BBig plays
Defense
50· CRating
42· CPer play
18· DConsistency
Situational
35· DRed-zone O
73· BRed-zone D
91· A-3rd down O
62· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.023
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.006
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.050
Defensive EPA/play
+0.010
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.8%
Def Success Rate
47.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.039
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.133
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.69

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.91
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.34
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.43
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.05
own return game
Return Defense
+0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#37
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#16
AP 21 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#76
model 39 higher
Recruiting Rank
#61
model 24 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Illinois ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
75th
Opp-adjusted defense
44th
Offensive EPA/play
68th
Defensive EPA/play
43th
Offensive success rate
75th
Explosiveness
72th
Defensive havoc
33th
Points per drive
81th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Louisiana Tech2017OA +0.038 / -0.048similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3632Iowa State2024OA +0.039 / +0.005similar: havoc rate, pass defense, offensive success rate3583Coastal Carolina2023OA +0.052 / -0.014similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, rushing offense3504Florida International2018OA +0.106 / -0.062similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, pass defense3485Washington2019OA -0.038 / +0.089similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, havoc rate345

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Eastern Illinois45-0W----
2vs Kansas23-17W+6.0W55.5U
3vs Central Michigan30-9W+7.5W42.5O
4@ Nebraska31-24W----
5@ Penn State7-21L+18.0W47.5U
7vs Purdue50-49W-19.5L49O
8vs Michigan21-7W+3.0W43.5U
9@ Oregon9-38L+21.5L54.5U
10vs Minnesota17-25L+3.0L45U
12vs Michigan State38-16W-2.5W47.5O
13@ Rutgers38-31W-1.0W48O
14@ Northwestern38-28W-7.5W44O
19vs South Carolina21-17W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
10-3
76.9%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS6-2
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS5-1
Underdog ATS5-2
Last 5 ATS
LWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off46thRush Off78thRed Zone Off35th3rd Down Off92thPass Def36thRush Def60thRed Zone Def74th3rd Down Def63th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.05064th-0.01154th
Red Zone-0.05635th-0.13974th
Third Down+0.34092th+0.04063th
No Garbage Time+0.05274th+0.01441th
First Half+0.02860th-0.00244th
Second Half+0.07071th-0.01958th
Early Downs+0.03775th-0.03150th
Passing Downs+0.00546th+0.04636th
Standard Downs+0.07478th-0.03760th
Goal to Go-0.11030th-0.07665th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.9%Rush 56.1%
Havoc/Game
11.8
Havoc Rate
16.7%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
13.8
Yards/Game
364.8
Pts/Drive
2.69
3rd Down%
46.5%
3&Out%
15.0%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — Illinois vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatIllinoisOpponents
Scoring
Points368282
Points / Game28.321.7
First Downs
Total265275
Rushing110117
Passing127141
Penalty2817
Rushing
Attempts452441
Yards1,9971,929
Yards / Carry4.44.4
Yards / Game153.6148.4
Touchdowns2212
Passing
Attempts353444
Completions213262
Completion %60.3%59.0%
Yards2,7462,922
Yards / Attempt7.86.6
Touchdowns2219
Interceptions612
Passer Rating142.85123.01
Total Offense
Plays805885
Yards4,7434,851
Yards / Play5.95.5
Yards / Game364.8373.2
Punt Returns
Returns279
Yards35887
Average13.39.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1415
Yards272233
Average19.415.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4541
Yards1,8361,836
Average40.844.8
Interception Returns
Returns126
Yards13453
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1517
Lost88
Penalties
Penalties6873
Yards522661
Yards / Game40.250.8
Time of Possession
Per Game29:0530:55
Third Downs
Attempts155178
Conversions7280
Conversion %46.5%44.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1725
Conversions811
Conversion %47.1%44.0%
Red Zone
Trips5147
Scores (TD + FG)4439
Score %86.3%83.0%
Touchdowns3125
TD %60.8%53.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2223
Made1817
Pct81.8%73.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3928
Made3827
Pct97.4%96.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts65
Made23
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →