Fourth Down Data
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Louisiana Tech

BulldogsBalanced
Sun Belt Conference7-6#89 (-4.76)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

33· DOverall
Offense
54· CRating
71· BPer play
64· CConsistency
84· BBig plays
Defense
28· DRating
52· CPer play
22· DConsistency
Situational
13· FRed-zone O
90· A-Red-zone D
48· C3rd down O
82· B3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.038
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.048
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.037
Defensive EPA/play
-0.026
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.1%
Def Success Rate
49.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.063
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.011
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.30

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.28
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.20
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.01
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.02
own return game
Return Defense
-0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#89
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 14 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Louisiana Tech ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
67th
Opp-adjusted defense
37th
Offensive EPA/play
71th
Defensive EPA/play
53th
Offensive success rate
72th
Explosiveness
85th
Defensive havoc
35th
Points per drive
65th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Jacksonville State2025OA -0.063 / -0.020similar: pass defense, rushing offense, turnover rate3812Illinois2024OA +0.023 / -0.006similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3633Louisiana2023OA +0.073 / -0.059similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, takeaway rate3464Arizona State2018OA +0.072 / -0.049similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, defensive success rate3405Tulane2025OA -0.011 / +0.016similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, takeaway rate338

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Northwestern State52-24W+4.0W71U
2vs Mississippi State21-57L+10.5L66.5O
3@ Western Kentucky23-22W+4.0W62U
4@ South Carolina16-17L+9.0W49.5U
5vs South Alabama34-16W-11.5W57.5U
6@ UAB22-23L-9.5L65.5U
8vs Southern Miss27-34L+1.0L55.5O
9@ Rice42-28W-11.5W51.5O
10vs North Texas23-24L-3.5L67U
11vs Florida Atlantic23-48L+3.0L68O
12@ UTEP42-21W-17.0W48.5O
13vs UTSA20-6W--52.5U
17@ SMU51-10W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-5
54.5%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS1-4
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS3-2
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
WLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off44thRush Off74thRed Zone Off14th3rd Down Off49thPass Def71thRush Def39thRed Zone Def91th3rd Down Def83th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.01966th-0.03454th
Red Zone-0.17514th-0.25891th
Third Down-0.01449th-0.24683th
No Garbage Time+0.03167th-0.03456th
First Half+0.02968th-0.07362th
Second Half+0.01060th+0.01037th
Early Downs+0.02571th+0.00035th
Passing Downs-0.04044th-0.10671th
Standard Downs+0.05074th-0.00239th
Goal to Go-0.05644th-0.46796th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.9%Rush 54.1%
Havoc/Game
11.9
Havoc Rate
16.8%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
15.8
Yards/Game
403.0
Pts/Drive
2.30
3rd Down%
40.7%
3&Out%
20.0%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Louisiana Tech vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLouisiana TechOpponents
Scoring
Points396330
Points / Game30.525.4
First Downs
Total281274
Rushing121142
Passing135120
Penalty2512
Rushing
Attempts495491
Yards2,2422,296
Yards / Carry4.54.7
Yards / Game172.5176.6
Touchdowns2221
Passing
Attempts420406
Completions233237
Completion %55.5%58.4%
Yards2,9972,716
Yards / Attempt7.16.7
Touchdowns1717
Interceptions519
Passer Rating126.39119.03
Total Offense
Plays915897
Yards5,2395,012
Yards / Play5.75.6
Yards / Game403.0385.5
Punt Returns
Returns1412
Yards9497
Average6.78.1
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns3053
Yards6681,063
Average22.320.1
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5656
Yards2,0972,311
Average37.441.3
Interception Returns
Returns195
Yards414121
Touchdowns50
Fumbles
Fumbles1720
Lost109
Penalties
Penalties6169
Yards527522
Yards / Game40.540.2
Time of Possession
Per Game30:1129:49
Third Downs
Attempts182174
Conversions7472
Conversion %40.7%41.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1615
Conversions910
Conversion %56.3%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips5441
Scores (TD + FG)4630
Score %85.2%73.2%
Touchdowns2820
TD %51.9%48.8%
Field Goals
Attempts3323
Made2515
Pct75.8%65.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4637
Made4333
Pct93.5%89.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts04
Made03
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →