Fourth Down Data
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BALL

Ball State

CardinalsRun-Heavy
Mid-American Conference5-7#104 (-8.83)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

23· DOverall
Offense
35· DRating
75· BPer play
85· BConsistency
72· BBig plays
Defense
29· DRating
48· CPer play
50· CConsistency
Situational
67· CRed-zone O
13· FRed-zone D
50· C3rd down O
66· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.005
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.021
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.086
Defensive EPA/play
+0.003
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.4%
Def Success Rate
47.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.084
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.116
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.54

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.48
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.35
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.15
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.15
own return game
Return Defense
-0.13
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#104
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 29 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Ball State ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
54th
Opp-adjusted defense
43th
Offensive EPA/play
76th
Defensive EPA/play
49th
Offensive success rate
81th
Explosiveness
72th
Defensive havoc
27th
Points per drive
73th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Iowa State2024OA +0.039 / +0.005similar: takeaway rate, passing offense, defensive EPA3942Louisville2017OA +0.148 / -0.016similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, passing offense3583UCLA2021OA +0.125 / -0.079similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, turnover rate3514Louisiana2023OA +0.073 / -0.059similar: passing offense, turnover rate, TD drive rate3495Utah2026OA +0.030 / -0.011similar: havoc rate, turnover rate, passing offense340

2019 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Indiana24-34L+18.0W61U
2vs Fordham57-29W-29.5L51O
3vs Florida Atlantic31-41L+2.5L64.5O
4@ NC State23-34L+19.5W59U
6@ Northern Illinois27-20W+4.0W55U
7@ Eastern Michigan29-23W+2.0W57U
8vs Toledo52-14W-3.5W58.5O
9vs Ohio21-34L-1.5L60U
11@ Western Michigan31-35L+6.5W65O
12vs Central Michigan44-45L-1.5L60O
13@ Kent State38-41L-3.0L67.5O
14vs Miami (OH)41-27W-3.0W55.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS2-4
Underdog ATS5-1
Last 5 ATS
LWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off67thRush Off81thRed Zone Off68th3rd Down Off50thPass Def56thRush Def24thRed Zone Def13th3rd Down Def66th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.08781th+0.02637th
Red Zone+0.06268th+0.15213th
Third Down+0.02550th-0.04766th
No Garbage Time+0.08776th+0.00050th
First Half+0.04363th+0.02043th
Second Half+0.13391th+0.03333th
Early Downs+0.09284th+0.04228th
Passing Downs+0.08367th-0.03456th
Standard Downs+0.08981th+0.05824th
Goal to Go+0.15777th+0.3405th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 41.0%Rush 59.0%
Havoc/Game
12.3
Havoc Rate
16.2%
TO Margin
+0.7
Explosive/G
18.2
Yards/Game
463.0
Pts/Drive
2.54
3rd Down%
41.3%
3&Out%
18.0%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 12 games — Ball State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBall StateOpponents
Scoring
Points418377
Points / Game34.831.4
First Downs
Total292265
Rushing129110
Passing137135
Penalty2620
Rushing
Attempts536485
Yards2,6332,155
Yards / Carry4.94.4
Yards / Game219.4179.6
Touchdowns2734
Passing
Attempts373391
Completions239229
Completion %64.1%58.6%
Yards2,9232,941
Yards / Attempt7.87.5
Touchdowns2411
Interceptions715
Passer Rating147.38123.36
Total Offense
Plays909876
Yards5,5565,096
Yards / Play6.15.8
Yards / Game463.0424.7
Punt Returns
Returns1420
Yards112303
Average8.015.2
Touchdowns02
Kickoff Returns
Returns4258
Yards9481,129
Average22.619.5
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5350
Yards2,0602,199
Average38.944.0
Interception Returns
Returns157
Yards7132
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1816
Lost99
Penalties
Penalties7173
Yards636620
Yards / Game53.051.7
Time of Possession
Per Game30:1729:43
Third Downs
Attempts172175
Conversions7172
Conversion %41.3%41.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2321
Conversions1210
Conversion %52.2%47.6%
Red Zone
Trips4951
Scores (TD + FG)4145
Score %83.7%88.2%
Touchdowns3135
TD %63.3%68.6%
Field Goals
Attempts2220
Made1516
Pct68.2%80.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5143
Made4941
Pct96.1%95.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts24
Made23
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →