Fourth Down Data
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Boise State

BroncosRun-Heavy
Pac-12 Conference8-6#36 (+3.99)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

73· BOverall
Offense
87· BRating
88· BPer play
78· BConsistency
86· BBig plays
Defense
54· CRating
34· DPer play
40· CConsistency
Situational
82· BRed-zone O
27· DRed-zone D
49· C3rd down O
61· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.080
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.028
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.131
Defensive EPA/play
+0.044
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.5%
Def Success Rate
45.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.087
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.030
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.86

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.43
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.57
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.74
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
-0.17
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#36
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#44
model 8 higher
Recruiting Rank
#68
model 32 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Boise State ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
84th
Opp-adjusted defense
39th
Offensive EPA/play
89th
Defensive EPA/play
35th
Offensive success rate
74th
Explosiveness
87th
Defensive havoc
75th
Points per drive
90th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Nevada2026OA +0.038 / +0.011similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, takeaway rate3862Michigan2025OA +0.091 / +0.024similar: passing offense, run defense, takeaway rate3793Kansas2024OA +0.048 / -0.020similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, turnover rate3784Oklahoma State2019OA +0.084 / +0.036similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, turnover rate3745Missouri2017OA +0.143 / -0.049similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive EPA358

2023 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Washington19-56L+14.0L58.5O
2vs UCF16-18L+3.5W58.5U
3vs North Dakota42-18W-12.5W59.5O
4@ San Diego State34-31W----
5@ Memphis32-35L+3.0P59.5O
6vs San José State35-27W-9.5L59O
7@ Colorado State30-31L-7.5L60.5O
9vs Wyoming32-7W-5.0W49U
10@ Fresno State30-37L+3.0L55O
11vs New Mexico42-14W-25.0W60.5U
12@ Utah State45-10W-6.5W46P
13vs Air Force27-19W----
14@ UNLV44-20W-2.5W60.5O
16vs UCLA22-35L+2.5L49.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6-1
53.8%
O/U Record
9-4-1
69.2%
Straight Up
8-6
57.1%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS6-3
Underdog ATS1-3
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off68thRush Off87thRed Zone Off83th3rd Down Off50thPass Def38thRush Def43thRed Zone Def27th3rd Down Def61th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.09984th+0.02345th
Red Zone+0.15783th+0.09227th
Third Down+0.19550th+0.13561th
No Garbage Time+0.13790th+0.05229th
First Half+0.15287th-0.00356th
Second Half+0.04167th+0.04833th
Early Downs+0.01067th+0.02327th
Passing Downs+0.10968th+0.06438th
Standard Downs+0.09487th-0.00243th
Goal to Go+0.28290th+0.13633th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.9%Rush 60.1%
Havoc/Game
13.4
Havoc Rate
20.6%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
16.0
Yards/Game
436.1
Pts/Drive
2.86
3rd Down%
45.9%
3&Out%
16.3%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 14 games — Boise State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBoise StateOpponents
Scoring
Points450358
Points / Game32.125.6
First Downs
Total302259
Rushing15199
Passing130145
Penalty2115
Rushing
Attempts560451
Yards3,0081,887
Yards / Carry5.44.2
Yards / Game214.9134.8
Touchdowns3423
Passing
Attempts372441
Completions216268
Completion %58.1%60.8%
Yards3,0983,505
Yards / Attempt8.37.9
Touchdowns2019
Interceptions1311
Passer Rating138.77136.76
Total Offense
Plays932892
Yards6,1065,392
Yards / Play6.66.0
Yards / Game436.1385.1
Punt Returns
Returns819
Yards27201
Average3.410.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2632
Yards502797
Average19.324.9
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5665
Yards2,7592,723
Average49.341.9
Interception Returns
Returns1113
Yards76134
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1515
Lost98
Penalties
Penalties5282
Yards448648
Yards / Game32.046.3
Time of Possession
Per Game31:1428:46
Third Downs
Attempts185181
Conversions8570
Conversion %45.9%38.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1124
Conversions910
Conversion %81.8%41.7%
Red Zone
Trips5348
Scores (TD + FG)4739
Score %88.7%81.3%
Touchdowns3432
TD %64.2%66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts2719
Made2416
Pct88.9%84.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4941
Made4840
Pct98.0%97.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts54
Made30
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →