Fourth Down Data
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ARK

Arkansas

RazorbacksRun-Heavy
Southeastern Conference7-6#41 (+3.25)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

70· BOverall
Offense
83· BRating
76· BPer play
64· CConsistency
85· BBig plays
Defense
45· CRating
21· DPer play
46· CConsistency
Situational
38· DRed-zone O
42· CRed-zone D
84· B3rd down O
7· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.169
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.023
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.083
Defensive EPA/play
+0.059
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.2%
Def Success Rate
46.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.024
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.042
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.55

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.04
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.28
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.76
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.07
own return game
Return Defense
-0.50
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#41
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#59
model 18 higher
Recruiting Rank
#24
recruiting 17 spots higher
19 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Arkansas ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
93th
Opp-adjusted defense
43th
Offensive EPA/play
77th
Defensive EPA/play
22th
Offensive success rate
60th
Explosiveness
86th
Defensive havoc
65th
Points per drive
71th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Tennessee2021OA +0.148 / -0.029similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, takeaway rate4002Ole Miss2022OA +0.160 / -0.039similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3723Texas State2023OA +0.033 / -0.087similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, defensive EPA3714Louisville2019OA +0.103 / -0.077similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3715SMU2017OA +0.140 / -0.078similar: pass defense, turnover rate, passing offense367

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Cincinnati31-24W-6.5W52O
2vs South Carolina44-30W-9.0W54.5O
3vs Missouri State38-27W-26.5L58.5O
4@ Texas A&M21-23L+2.0P48.5U
5vs Alabama26-49L+17.3L61O
6@ Mississippi State17-40L+3.5L55.5O
7@ BYU52-35W-1.5W66O
9@ Auburn41-27W-3.5W62O
10vs Liberty19-21L-13.5L63U
11vs LSU10-13L+3.0P64U
12vs Ole Miss42-27W+2.5W61O
13@ Missouri27-29L----
18vs Kansas55-53W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-6-2
45.5%
O/U Record
9-3-1
75.0%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS2-2
Favorite ATS4-4
Underdog ATS1-2
Last 5 ATS
LPLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off81thRush Off64thRed Zone Off39th3rd Down Off85thPass Def10thRush Def37thRed Zone Def42th3rd Down Def7th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06470th+0.08213th
Red Zone-0.04539th+0.01842th
Third Down+0.31585th+0.3947th
No Garbage Time+0.08179th+0.06021th
First Half+0.07172th+0.05623th
Second Half+0.05772th+0.1117th
Early Downs+0.02767th+0.00639th
Passing Downs+0.14681th+0.21910th
Standard Downs+0.02464th+0.00637th
Goal to Go-0.3679th+0.3714th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 37.1%Rush 62.9%
Havoc/Game
14.6
Havoc Rate
19.6%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
18.8
Yards/Game
471.2
Pts/Drive
2.55
3rd Down%
45.9%
3&Out%
18.4%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — Arkansas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArkansasOpponents
Scoring
Points423398
Points / Game32.530.6
First Downs
Total311295
Rushing167112
Passing126156
Penalty1827
Rushing
Attempts605487
Yards3,0752,211
Yards / Carry5.14.5
Yards / Game236.5170.1
Touchdowns2726
Passing
Attempts357449
Completions231275
Completion %64.7%61.2%
Yards3,0513,831
Yards / Attempt8.58.5
Touchdowns2624
Interceptions79
Passer Rating156.61146.55
Total Offense
Plays962936
Yards6,1266,042
Yards / Play6.46.5
Yards / Game471.2464.8
Punt Returns
Returns1710
Yards159144
Average9.414.4
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns109
Yards161194
Average16.121.6
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6357
Yards2,4972,405
Average39.642.2
Interception Returns
Returns97
Yards8322
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1922
Lost119
Penalties
Penalties8393
Yards722767
Yards / Game55.559.0
Time of Possession
Per Game29:1630:44
Third Downs
Attempts194191
Conversions8986
Conversion %45.9%45.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2021
Conversions912
Conversion %45.0%57.1%
Red Zone
Trips5954
Scores (TD + FG)4947
Score %83.1%87.0%
Touchdowns3935
TD %66.1%64.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1624
Made1315
Pct81.3%62.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5040
Made5037
Pct100.0%92.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts512
Made35
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →