Fourth Down Data
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TENN

Tennessee

VolunteersRun-Heavy
Southeastern Conference7-6#19 (+7.40)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

86· BOverall
Offense
91· A-Rating
81· BPer play
82· BConsistency
37· DBig plays
Defense
33· DRating
22· DPer play
39· DConsistency
Situational
46· CRed-zone O
4· FRed-zone D
60· C3rd down O
7· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.148
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.029
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.077
Defensive EPA/play
+0.069
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.9%
Def Success Rate
45.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.009
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.056
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.86

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+3.26
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.89
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.69
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.61
own return game
Return Defense
+1.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#19
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 7 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#37
model 18 higher
Recruiting Rank
#19
model & recruiting agree
30 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Tennessee ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
94th
Opp-adjusted defense
32th
Offensive EPA/play
82th
Defensive EPA/play
23th
Offensive success rate
75th
Explosiveness
38th
Defensive havoc
64th
Points per drive
89th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arkansas2022OA +0.169 / -0.023similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, takeaway rate4002North Carolina2020OA +0.097 / -0.025similar: defensive EPA, run defense, TD drive rate3623Oklahoma2022OA +0.102 / +0.001similar: pass defense, havoc rate, offensive EPA3504Indiana2026OA +0.042 / -0.063similar: run defense, TD drive rate, pass defense3465Ole Miss2025OA +0.189 / -0.005similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, turnover rate339

2021 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Bowling Green38-6W----
2vs Pittsburgh34-41L+2.0L52O
3vs Tennessee Tech56-0W-56.5L63.5U
4@ Florida14-38L+16.5L--
5@ Missouri62-24W+3.0W65O
6vs South Carolina45-20W-10.5W56.5O
7vs Ole Miss26-31L+3.0L82U
8@ Alabama24-52L+25.0L67.5O
10@ Kentucky45-42W+1.0W57O
11vs Georgia17-41L+20.0L56O
12vs South Alabama60-14W-27.5W63O
13vs Vanderbilt45-21W-31.5L63O
18@ Purdue45-48L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-9
30.8%
O/U Record
9-3
75.0%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS2-6
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS2-4
Underdog ATS2-5
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off89thRush Off59thRed Zone Off46th3rd Down Off61thPass Def11thRush Def43thRed Zone Def5th3rd Down Def8th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06174th+0.06221th
Red Zone-0.05146th+0.2215th
Third Down+0.13761th+0.3518th
No Garbage Time+0.08383th+0.07520th
First Half+0.11686th+0.05626th
Second Half+0.01051th+0.06922th
Early Downs+0.07383th-0.00843th
Passing Downs+0.13589th+0.14111th
Standard Downs+0.02859th+0.01543th
Goal to Go+0.11077th+0.20820th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.5%Rush 60.5%
Havoc/Game
15.9
Havoc Rate
19.6%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
13.2
Yards/Game
474.4
Pts/Drive
2.86
3rd Down%
44.7%
3&Out%
17.3%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 13 games — Tennessee vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTennesseeOpponents
Scoring
Points511378
Points / Game39.329.1
First Downs
Total316293
Rushing164117
Passing124155
Penalty2821
Rushing
Attempts577521
Yards2,8251,931
Yards / Carry4.93.7
Yards / Game217.3148.5
Touchdowns3024
Passing
Attempts376489
Completions243300
Completion %64.6%61.3%
Yards3,3423,551
Yards / Attempt8.97.3
Touchdowns3323
Interceptions313
Passer Rating166.66132.55
Total Offense
Plays9531,010
Yards6,1675,482
Yards / Play6.55.4
Yards / Game474.4421.7
Punt Returns
Returns267
Yards30614
Average11.82.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3228
Yards813550
Average25.419.6
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts4963
Yards2,1362,592
Average43.641.1
Interception Returns
Returns133
Yards25085
Touchdowns30
Fumbles
Fumbles196
Lost103
Penalties
Penalties8989
Yards828779
Yards / Game63.759.9
Time of Possession
Per Game24:3035:30
Third Downs
Attempts179216
Conversions8091
Conversion %44.7%42.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3135
Conversions1519
Conversion %48.4%54.3%
Red Zone
Trips5850
Scores (TD + FG)4946
Score %84.5%92.0%
Touchdowns3936
TD %67.2%72.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1618
Made1214
Pct75.0%77.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6744
Made6744
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts04
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →