Fourth Down Data
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TXST

Texas State

BobcatsBalanced
Pac-12 Conference8-5#59 (+1.27)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

56· COverall
Offense
84· BRating
76· BPer play
75· BConsistency
68· CBig plays
Defense
18· DRating
26· DPer play
23· DConsistency
Situational
30· DRed-zone O
21· DRed-zone D
87· B3rd down O
1· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.033
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.087
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.078
Defensive EPA/play
+0.059
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.4%
Def Success Rate
49.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.020
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.047
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.78

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.49
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.31
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.60
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.25
own return game
Return Defense
-0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#59
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#64
model 5 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
model 17 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Texas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
66th
Opp-adjusted defense
9th
Offensive EPA/play
77th
Defensive EPA/play
27th
Offensive success rate
81th
Explosiveness
69th
Defensive havoc
89th
Points per drive
87th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Western Michigan2018OA +0.035 / -0.079similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, rushing offense3892SMU2017OA +0.140 / -0.078similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, takeaway rate3843Arkansas2022OA +0.169 / -0.023similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, defensive EPA3724Tennessee2025OA +0.148 / -0.011similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, takeaway rate3695Ole Miss2022OA +0.160 / -0.039similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, turnover rate366

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Baylor42-31W+27.5W60O
2@ UTSA13-20L+14.0W66.5U
3vs Jackson State77-34W-17.5W61O
4vs Nevada35-24W-17.0L60U
5@ Southern Miss50-36W-5.5W61O
6@ Louisiana30-34L+2.5L68.5U
7vs UL Monroe21-20W-16.5L63.5U
9vs Troy13-31L+4.5L52.5U
10vs Georgia Southern45-24W+2.0W70.5U
11@ Coastal Carolina23-31L-1.0L59U
12@ Arkansas State31-77L-3.5L59.5O
13vs South Alabama52-44W+6.0W58O
18@ Rice45-21W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS3-4
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
WLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off62thRush Off81thRed Zone Off30th3rd Down Off88thPass Def3thRush Def50thRed Zone Def21th3rd Down Def1th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07576th+0.09813th
Red Zone-0.08530th+0.12821th
Third Down+0.37688th+0.6071th
No Garbage Time+0.06773th+0.06124th
First Half+0.12584th+0.08820th
Second Half+0.01554th+0.10915th
Early Downs-0.01558th-0.08173th
Passing Downs+0.08662th+0.2843th
Standard Downs+0.07081th-0.01950th
Goal to Go+0.00046th+0.06041th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.8%Rush 55.2%
Havoc/Game
16.3
Havoc Rate
22.6%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
16.2
Yards/Game
457.6
Pts/Drive
2.78
3rd Down%
44.0%
3&Out%
21.1%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Texas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTexas StateOpponents
Scoring
Points477427
Points / Game36.732.8
First Downs
Total312287
Rushing141109
Passing149140
Penalty2238
Rushing
Attempts529489
Yards2,4271,967
Yards / Carry4.64.0
Yards / Game186.7151.3
Touchdowns3326
Passing
Attempts429417
Completions287271
Completion %66.9%65.0%
Yards3,5223,202
Yards / Attempt8.27.7
Touchdowns2424
Interceptions911
Passer Rating150.13143.21
Total Offense
Plays958906
Yards5,9495,169
Yards / Play6.25.7
Yards / Game457.6397.6
Punt Returns
Returns1212
Yards8377
Average6.96.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3949
Yards1,0171,133
Average26.123.1
Touchdowns21
Punting
Punts4645
Yards1,8361,853
Average39.941.2
Interception Returns
Returns119
Yards141326
Touchdowns24
Fumbles
Fumbles2129
Lost1411
Penalties
Penalties9575
Yards900629
Yards / Game69.248.4
Time of Possession
Per Game29:1130:48
Third Downs
Attempts184188
Conversions8188
Conversion %44.0%46.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3232
Conversions2115
Conversion %65.6%46.9%
Red Zone
Trips6155
Scores (TD + FG)5347
Score %86.9%85.5%
Touchdowns4139
TD %67.2%70.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1516
Made1513
Pct100.0%81.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5948
Made5846
Pct98.3%95.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts38
Made13
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →