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LOU
Louisville
CardinalsRun-HeavyAtlantic Coast Conference8-5#55 (+1.99)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
59· COverall
Offense
83· BRating
81· BPer play
55· CConsistency
69· CBig plays
Defense
24· DRating
19· DPer play
41· CConsistency
Situational
72· BRed-zone O
2· FRed-zone D
98· A+3rd down O
58· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.103
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.077
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.096
Defensive EPA/play
+0.082
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.9%
Def Success Rate
47.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.014
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.064
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.46
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.01
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.74
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.44
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.28
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#55
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#35
recruiting 20 spots higher
9 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Louisville ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense87th
Opp-adjusted defense19th
Offensive EPA/play81th
Defensive EPA/play19th
Offensive success rate58th
Explosiveness69th
Defensive havoc50th
Points per drive69th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Kansas2023OA +0.208 / -0.066similar: passing offense, pass defense, defensive EPA4022Arkansas2022OA +0.169 / -0.023similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3713North Carolina2021OA +0.091 / -0.074similar: takeaway rate, pass defense, run defense3714UCLA2021OA +0.125 / -0.079similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, defensive success rate3565Baylor2024OA +0.032 / -0.011similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, havoc rate353
2019 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Notre Dame | 17-35 | L | +4.5 | W | 64.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Eastern Kentucky | 42-0 | W | -21.0 | W | 60 | U |
| 3 | @ Western Kentucky | 38-21 | W | -10.5 | W | 49 | O |
| 4 | @ Florida State | 24-35 | L | +6.5 | L | 61 | U |
| 6 | vs Boston College | 41-39 | W | -3.5 | L | 61 | O |
| 7 | @ Wake Forest | 62-59 | W | +7.0 | W | 65 | O |
| 8 | vs Clemson | 10-45 | L | +24.0 | L | 62 | U |
| 9 | vs Virginia | 28-21 | W | +4.5 | W | 51 | U |
| 11 | @ Miami | 27-52 | L | +7.0 | L | 49.5 | O |
| 12 | @ NC State | 34-20 | W | -4.5 | W | 51.5 | O |
| 13 | vs Syracuse | 56-34 | W | -7.5 | W | 64.5 | O |
| 14 | @ Kentucky | 13-45 | L | +3.5 | L | 51 | O |
| 18 | vs Mississippi State | 38-28 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS4-1
Underdog ATS3-4
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.110 | 89th | +0.095 | 13th |
| Red Zone | +0.100 | 72th | +0.268 | 2th |
| Third Down | +0.479 | 99th | -0.012 | 59th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.096 | 81th | +0.072 | 22th |
| First Half | +0.074 | 72th | +0.066 | 28th |
| Second Half | +0.146 | 94th | +0.124 | 7th |
| Early Downs | -0.053 | 26th | +0.182 | 0th |
| Passing Downs | +0.254 | 93th | +0.043 | 38th |
| Standard Downs | +0.027 | 63th | +0.123 | 2th |
| Goal to Go | +0.230 | 84th | +0.474 | 1th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 34.7%Rush 65.3%
Havoc/Game
13.5
Havoc Rate
18.7%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
15.1
Yards/Game
447.3
Pts/Drive
2.46
3rd Down%
43.7%
3&Out%
19.0%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 13 games — Louisville vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Louisville | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 430 | 434 |
| Points / Game | 33.1 | 33.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 263 | 286 |
| Rushing | 129 | 127 |
| Passing | 115 | 137 |
| Penalty | 19 | 22 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 568 | 498 |
| Yards | 2,767 | 2,675 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.9 | 5.4 |
| Yards / Game | 212.8 | 205.8 |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 27 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 302 | 405 |
| Completions | 178 | 243 |
| Completion % | 58.9% | 60.0% |
| Yards | 3,048 | 3,044 |
| Yards / Attempt | 10.1 | 7.5 |
| Touchdowns | 32 | 31 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 7 |
| Passer Rating | 172.73 | 144.94 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 870 | 903 |
| Yards | 5,815 | 5,719 |
| Yards / Play | 6.7 | 6.3 |
| Yards / Game | 447.3 | 439.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 18 |
| Yards | 187 | 88 |
| Average | 11.7 | 4.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 33 | 54 |
| Yards | 904 | 1,159 |
| Average | 27.4 | 21.5 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 58 | 60 |
| Yards | 2,450 | 2,534 |
| Average | 42.2 | 42.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 7 | 9 |
| Yards | 38 | 36 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 20 | 22 |
| Lost | 10 | 11 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 93 | 68 |
| Yards | 780 | 545 |
| Yards / Game | 60.0 | 41.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:27 | 28:33 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 174 | 173 |
| Conversions | 76 | 66 |
| Conversion % | 43.7% | 38.2% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 23 |
| Conversions | 13 | 10 |
| Conversion % | 59.1% | 43.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 44 | 51 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 36 | 43 |
| Score % | 81.8% | 84.3% |
| Touchdowns | 30 | 38 |
| TD % | 68.2% | 74.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 13 |
| Made | 9 | 9 |
| Pct | 64.3% | 69.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 58 | 57 |
| Made | 55 | 57 |
| Pct | 94.8% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.