Fourth Down Data
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MIA

Miami

HurricanesBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference8-3#33 (+4.21)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

74· BOverall
Offense
78· BRating
67· CPer play
23· DConsistency
56· CBig plays
Defense
66· CRating
51· CPer play
57· CConsistency
Situational
70· BRed-zone O
64· CRed-zone D
73· B3rd down O
67· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.021
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.005
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.062
Defensive EPA/play
+0.022
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.2%
Def Success Rate
47.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.040
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.027
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.50

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.49
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.96
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.56
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.59
own return game
Return Defense
-0.33
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#33
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#22
AP 11 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#35
model 2 higher
Recruiting Rank
#11
recruiting 22 spots higher
37 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Miami ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
73th
Opp-adjusted defense
57th
Offensive EPA/play
68th
Defensive EPA/play
52th
Offensive success rate
27th
Explosiveness
56th
Defensive havoc
86th
Points per drive
68th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Texas2020OA +0.039 / -0.001similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3602Houston2025OA +0.036 / +0.057similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3553Texas A&M2017OA -0.004 / +0.039similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, havoc rate3424Miami (OH)2021OA -0.032 / +0.021similar: havoc rate, passing offense, defensive EPA3425Fresno State2023OA +0.055 / -0.018similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, pass defense339

2020 Schedule & Results

11 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
2vs UAB31-14W----
3@ Louisville47-34W+2.5W64.5O
4vs Florida State52-10W-11.0W53.5O
6@ Clemson17-42L+14.0L62.5U
7vs Pittsburgh31-19W-10.5W48.5O
8vs Virginia19-14W-12.5L57.5U
10@ NC State44-41W----
11@ Virginia Tech25-24W+2.0W66.5U
14@ Duke48-0W-14.5W59.5U
15vs North Carolina26-62L-3.0L70O
18vs Oklahoma State34-37L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-5
54.5%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
8-3
72.7%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS4-3
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off72thRush Off65thRed Zone Off71th3rd Down Off74thPass Def55thRush Def54thRed Zone Def65th3rd Down Def68th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07770th+0.01755th
Red Zone+0.09871th-0.06965th
Third Down+0.23174th-0.00868th
No Garbage Time+0.06768th+0.02350th
First Half+0.06665th-0.00555th
Second Half+0.08977th+0.03947th
Early Downs-0.02542th+0.02943th
Passing Downs+0.14572th+0.02855th
Standard Downs+0.03665th+0.01154th
Goal to Go+0.10656th-0.28288th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.4%Rush 52.6%
Havoc/Game
16.7
Havoc Rate
22.1%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
439.8
Pts/Drive
2.50
3rd Down%
40.6%
3&Out%
23.1%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 11 games — Miami vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMiamiOpponents
Scoring
Points374297
Points / Game34.027.0
First Downs
Total252258
Rushing99103
Passing126124
Penalty2731
Rushing
Attempts422422
Yards1,7881,919
Yards / Carry4.24.5
Yards / Game162.5174.5
Touchdowns1816
Passing
Attempts381381
Completions239241
Completion %62.7%63.3%
Yards3,0502,573
Yards / Attempt8.06.8
Touchdowns2620
Interceptions67
Passer Rating149.34133.63
Total Offense
Plays803803
Yards4,8384,492
Yards / Play6.05.6
Yards / Game439.8408.4
Punt Returns
Returns158
Yards3359
Average2.27.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2217
Yards452401
Average20.523.6
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5054
Yards2,3472,333
Average46.943.2
Interception Returns
Returns76
Yards1176
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1416
Lost69
Penalties
Penalties8684
Yards775754
Yards / Game70.568.5
Time of Possession
Per Game27:3932:08
Third Downs
Attempts160162
Conversions6562
Conversion %40.6%38.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1918
Conversions1310
Conversion %68.4%55.6%
Red Zone
Trips4346
Scores (TD + FG)3938
Score %90.7%82.6%
Touchdowns2626
TD %60.5%56.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2220
Made2013
Pct90.9%65.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3837
Made3836
Pct100.0%97.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts70
Made30
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →