Fourth Down Data
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TA&M

Texas A&M

AggiesBalanced
Southeastern Conference9-4#25 (+6.52)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

81· BOverall
Offense
74· BRating
61· CPer play
76· BConsistency
50· CBig plays
Defense
70· BRating
40· CPer play
81· BConsistency
Situational
36· DRed-zone O
20· DRed-zone D
26· D3rd down O
70· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.072
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.036
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.033
Defensive EPA/play
+0.022
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.5%
Def Success Rate
42.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.011
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.020
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.48

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.31
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.53
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.35
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#25
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#16
AP 9 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#14
recruiting 11 spots higher
43 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Texas A&M ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
77th
Opp-adjusted defense
64th
Offensive EPA/play
61th
Defensive EPA/play
40th
Offensive success rate
83th
Explosiveness
50th
Defensive havoc
97th
Points per drive
74th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Texas2022OA +0.125 / +0.064similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3522Central Michigan2021OA +0.019 / +0.003similar: havoc rate, passing offense, pass defense3333NC State2018OA +0.065 / -0.007similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, run defense3294UTSA2025OA -0.014 / +0.000similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, passing offense3205Missouri2025OA -0.020 / +0.102similar: run defense, rushing offense, havoc rate317

2018 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Northwestern State59-7W-7.5W58.5O
2vs Clemson26-28L+12.0W50.5O
3vs UL Monroe48-10W-28.0W66U
4@ Alabama23-45L+24.0W58.5O
5vs Arkansas24-17W-20.0L56.5U
6vs Kentucky20-14W-5.0W48.5U
7@ South Carolina26-23W-2.5W50U
9@ Mississippi State13-28L+1.5L42.5U
10@ Auburn24-28L+3.5L47O
11vs Ole Miss38-24W-13.0W68U
12vs UAB41-20W-17.0W46.5O
13vs LSU74-72W-3.0L46.5O
18vs NC State52-13W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS6-2
Away ATS2-2
Favorite ATS6-2
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
LLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off84thRush Off50thRed Zone Off36th3rd Down Off27thPass Def25thRush Def57thRed Zone Def20th3rd Down Def71th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.05472th+0.02341th
Red Zone-0.03536th+0.16120th
Third Down-0.06827th-0.05271th
No Garbage Time+0.03362th+0.02041th
First Half+0.07773th-0.01148th
Second Half+0.03262th+0.06130th
Early Downs+0.01563th+0.04326th
Passing Downs+0.15184th+0.10625th
Standard Downs+0.00450th-0.02857th
Goal to Go+0.11558th+0.10644th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.1%Rush 54.9%
Havoc/Game
15.4
Havoc Rate
24.4%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
15.1
Yards/Game
471.6
Pts/Drive
2.48
3rd Down%
41.2%
3&Out%
14.6%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 13 games — Texas A&M vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTexas A&MOpponents
Scoring
Points468329
Points / Game36.025.3
First Downs
Total336221
Rushing15176
Passing154124
Penalty3121
Rushing
Attempts538383
Yards2,8471,238
Yards / Carry5.33.2
Yards / Game219.095.2
Touchdowns2814
Passing
Attempts442402
Completions254244
Completion %57.5%60.7%
Yards3,2843,291
Yards / Attempt7.48.2
Touchdowns2526
Interceptions97
Passer Rating134.47147.32
Total Offense
Plays980785
Yards6,1314,529
Yards / Play6.35.8
Yards / Game471.6348.4
Punt Returns
Returns2421
Yards209132
Average8.76.3
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2217
Yards549281
Average25.016.5
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5084
Yards2,5493,708
Average51.044.1
Interception Returns
Returns79
Yards11544
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1919
Lost94
Penalties
Penalties8087
Yards662737
Yards / Game50.956.7
Time of Possession
Per Game34:2725:25
Third Downs
Attempts170162
Conversions7049
Conversion %41.2%30.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1010
Conversions55
Conversion %50.0%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips6737
Scores (TD + FG)5728
Score %85.1%75.7%
Touchdowns4025
TD %59.7%67.6%
Field Goals
Attempts3318
Made239
Pct69.7%50.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5137
Made5136
Pct100.0%97.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts56
Made34
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →