Fourth Down Data
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NCSU

NC State

WolfpackBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference9-4#28 (+5.33)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

79· BOverall
Offense
82· BRating
82· BPer play
82· BConsistency
83· BBig plays
Defense
63· CRating
52· CPer play
62· CConsistency
Situational
58· CRed-zone O
82· BRed-zone D
74· B3rd down O
71· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.065
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.007
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.087
Defensive EPA/play
-0.009
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.5%
Def Success Rate
44.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.096
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.156
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.66

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.32
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.55
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.21
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.10
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#28
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#35
model 7 spots higher
9 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where NC State ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
75th
Opp-adjusted defense
46th
Offensive EPA/play
83th
Defensive EPA/play
53th
Offensive success rate
83th
Explosiveness
84th
Defensive havoc
81th
Points per drive
83th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Indiana2019OA +0.128 / -0.036similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate4122LSU2024OA +0.031 / -0.003similar: turnover rate, takeaway rate, rushing offense4073Oklahoma State2017OA +0.215 / +0.003similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, passing offense3734Alabama2021OA +0.139 / +0.155similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, rushing offense3705Missouri2023OA +0.124 / +0.067similar: TD drive rate, run defense, defensive EPA368

2018 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs James Madison24-13W+7.5L58.5O
2vs Georgia State41-7W-25.0W56.5U
4@ Marshall37-20W-6.0W56O
5vs Virginia35-21W-5.5W52.5O
6vs Boston College28-23W-6.5L60.5U
8@ Clemson7-41L+17.5L58U
9@ Syracuse41-51L-2.0L65O
10vs Florida State47-28W-9.5W52O
11vs Wake Forest23-27L-17.0L69U
12@ Louisville52-10W-16.0W65U
13@ North Carolina34-28W-7.5L61.5O
14vs East Carolina58-3W-24.5W59.5O
18@ Texas A&M13-52L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS6-4
Underdog ATS0-2
Last 5 ATS
WLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off77thRush Off80thRed Zone Off59th3rd Down Off74thPass Def20thRush Def80thRed Zone Def83th3rd Down Def72th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.09386th-0.01254th
Red Zone+0.05359th-0.16183th
Third Down+0.16574th-0.05472th
No Garbage Time+0.08483th-0.01554th
First Half+0.08780th-0.09174th
Second Half+0.10083th+0.06727th
Early Downs+0.07984th-0.03055th
Passing Downs+0.12577th+0.11320th
Standard Downs+0.07880th-0.08880th
Goal to Go+0.10155th+0.05457th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.7%Rush 49.3%
Havoc/Game
14.7
Havoc Rate
22.0%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
16.8
Yards/Game
456.1
Pts/Drive
2.66
3rd Down%
47.3%
3&Out%
15.3%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 13 games — NC State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNC StateOpponents
Scoring
Points440324
Points / Game33.824.9
First Downs
Total315241
Rushing10089
Passing185134
Penalty3018
Rushing
Attempts483405
Yards1,8581,710
Yards / Carry3.84.2
Yards / Game142.9131.5
Touchdowns2718
Passing
Attempts496454
Completions334267
Completion %67.3%58.8%
Yards4,0713,394
Yards / Attempt8.27.5
Touchdowns2518
Interceptions1110
Passer Rating148.48130.29
Total Offense
Plays979859
Yards5,9295,104
Yards / Play6.15.9
Yards / Game456.1392.6
Punt Returns
Returns1516
Yards140110
Average9.36.9
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2046
Yards411950
Average20.620.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5063
Yards2,0762,598
Average41.541.2
Interception Returns
Returns1011
Yards113229
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1618
Lost79
Penalties
Penalties6089
Yards581698
Yards / Game44.753.7
Time of Possession
Per Game33:0726:53
Third Downs
Attempts184177
Conversions8759
Conversion %47.3%33.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1722
Conversions1011
Conversion %58.8%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips7147
Scores (TD + FG)6236
Score %87.3%76.6%
Touchdowns4323
TD %60.6%48.9%
Field Goals
Attempts2623
Made2317
Pct88.5%73.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5137
Made5137
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →