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LSU
LSU
TigersPass-HeavySoutheastern Conference9-4#40 (+3.50)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
70· BOverall
Offense
90· A-Rating
76· BPer play
61· CConsistency
85· BBig plays
Defense
50· CRating
44· CPer play
30· DConsistency
Situational
11· FRed-zone O
67· CRed-zone D
95· A3rd down O
35· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.031
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.003
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.065
Defensive EPA/play
+0.008
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.6%
Def Success Rate
46.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.057
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.016
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.79
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.01
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.09
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.30
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.20
own return game
Return Defense
+0.00
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#40
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#29
market 11 higher
Recruiting Rank
#9
recruiting 31 spots higher
61 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where LSU ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense81th
Opp-adjusted defense50th
Offensive EPA/play77th
Defensive EPA/play44th
Offensive success rate58th
Explosiveness86th
Defensive havoc78th
Points per drive88th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1NC State2018OA +0.065 / -0.007similar: turnover rate, takeaway rate, rushing offense4072Indiana2019OA +0.128 / -0.036similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3693Texas2018OA +0.090 / +0.028similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3644SMU2020OA +0.035 / -0.008similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, passing offense3545Purdue2026OA +0.017 / +0.004similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA353
2024 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs USC | 20-27 | L | -4.0 | L | 66.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Nicholls State | 44-21 | W | -46.0 | L | 57.5 | O |
| 3 | @ South Carolina | 36-33 | W | -7.0 | L | 48 | O |
| 4 | vs UCLA | 34-17 | W | -23.5 | L | 56 | U |
| 5 | vs South Alabama | 42-10 | W | -21.5 | W | 65.5 | U |
| 7 | vs Ole Miss | 29-26 | W | +3.5 | W | 63.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Arkansas | 34-10 | W | -2.5 | W | 55.5 | U |
| 9 | @ Texas A&M | 23-38 | L | +2.5 | L | 53.5 | O |
| 11 | vs Alabama | 13-42 | L | +3.0 | L | 58.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Florida | 16-27 | L | -4.5 | L | 55 | U |
| 13 | vs Vanderbilt | 24-17 | W | -7.5 | L | 53.5 | U |
| 14 | vs Oklahoma | 37-17 | W | -6.0 | W | 47 | O |
| 19 | vs Baylor | 44-31 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-8
38.5%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS4-5
Away ATS1-3
Favorite ATS3-6
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.052 | 66th | +0.015 | 39th |
| Red Zone | -0.225 | 11th | -0.097 | 68th |
| Third Down | +0.382 | 96th | +0.151 | 36th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.058 | 75th | +0.004 | 46th |
| First Half | +0.102 | 81th | +0.067 | 23th |
| Second Half | +0.000 | 40th | -0.041 | 70th |
| Early Downs | +0.009 | 57th | +0.033 | 25th |
| Passing Downs | +0.083 | 67th | -0.030 | 59th |
| Standard Downs | +0.034 | 64th | +0.040 | 32th |
| Goal to Go | -0.537 | 1th | +0.093 | 35th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 58.9%Rush 41.1%
Havoc/Game
13.5
Havoc Rate
21.3%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
16.5
Yards/Game
431.5
Pts/Drive
2.79
3rd Down%
49.2%
3&Out%
10.0%
Team Statistics
2024 season totals across 13 games — LSU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | LSU | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 396 | 316 |
| Points / Game | 30.5 | 24.3 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 306 | 242 |
| Rushing | 79 | 100 |
| Passing | 197 | 125 |
| Penalty | 30 | 17 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 373 | 425 |
| Yards | 1,513 | 1,821 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.1 | 4.3 |
| Yards / Game | 116.4 | 140.1 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 26 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 534 | 380 |
| Completions | 344 | 232 |
| Completion % | 64.4% | 61.1% |
| Yards | 4,097 | 2,916 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.7 | 7.7 |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 11 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 6 |
| Passer Rating | 142.29 | 131.91 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 907 | 805 |
| Yards | 5,610 | 4,737 |
| Yards / Play | 6.2 | 5.9 |
| Yards / Game | 431.5 | 364.4 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 9 |
| Yards | 66 | 75 |
| Average | 4.7 | 8.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 29 | 8 |
| Yards | 801 | 179 |
| Average | 27.6 | 22.4 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 32 | 48 |
| Yards | 1,266 | 2,187 |
| Average | 39.6 | 45.6 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 6 | 12 |
| Yards | 62 | 100 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 10 | 21 |
| Lost | 5 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 82 | 92 |
| Yards | 645 | 832 |
| Yards / Game | 49.6 | 64.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 32:04 | 27:56 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 187 | 161 |
| Conversions | 92 | 66 |
| Conversion % | 49.2% | 41.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 24 |
| Conversions | 12 | 8 |
| Conversion % | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 53 | 41 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 44 | 31 |
| Score % | 83.0% | 75.6% |
| Touchdowns | 30 | 24 |
| TD % | 56.6% | 58.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 29 | 21 |
| Made | 23 | 17 |
| Pct | 79.3% | 81.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 42 | 37 |
| Made | 41 | 37 |
| Pct | 97.6% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.