Fourth Down Data
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LSU

LSU

TigersBalanced
Southeastern Conference5-5#81 (-1.90)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

37· DOverall
Offense
39· DRating
46· CPer play
38· DConsistency
22· DBig plays
Defense
46· CRating
33· DPer play
31· DConsistency
Situational
43· CRed-zone O
49· CRed-zone D
6· F3rd down O
84· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.020
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.012
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.005
Defensive EPA/play
+0.064
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.2%
Def Success Rate
49.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.069
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.026
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.16

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.04
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.77
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.27
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.20
own return game
Return Defense
-0.75
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#81
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#58
market 23 higher
Recruiting Rank
#3
recruiting 78 spots higher
54 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where LSU ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
28th
Opp-adjusted defense
40th
Offensive EPA/play
46th
Defensive EPA/play
34th
Offensive success rate
45th
Explosiveness
22th
Defensive havoc
84th
Points per drive
50th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Texas A&M2017OA -0.004 / +0.039similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, pass defense3742Tulane2025OA -0.011 / +0.016similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, defensive success rate3563Syracuse2019OA -0.024 / -0.043similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, takeaway rate3324California2021OA -0.056 / -0.013similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, turnover rate3235Marshall2025OA +0.006 / -0.022similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, passing offense321

2020 Schedule & Results

10 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
4vs Mississippi State34-44L-16.5L57O
5@ Vanderbilt41-7W-21.0W50.5U
6@ Missouri41-45L-13.5L54O
8vs South Carolina52-24W-6.0W55O
9@ Auburn11-48L-2.5L65U
12@ Arkansas27-24W0.0W63.5U
13@ Texas A&M7-20L+14.5W63.5U
14vs Alabama17-55L+29.5L67O
15@ Florida37-34W+23.5W66.5O
16vs Ole Miss53-48W+1.5W74.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-4
60.0%
O/U Record
6-4
60.0%
Straight Up
5-5
50.0%
Home ATS2-2
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS4-1
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off38thRush Off43thRed Zone Off43th3rd Down Off6thPass Def36thRush Def44thRed Zone Def49th3rd Down Def85th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.01641th+0.05138th
Red Zone-0.04343th-0.00049th
Third Down-0.3396th-0.13785th
No Garbage Time-0.01541th+0.06332th
First Half-0.01838th-0.02665th
Second Half-0.01442th+0.14615th
Early Downs+0.01157th+0.07816th
Passing Downs-0.02938th+0.09936th
Standard Downs-0.01043th+0.03044th
Goal to Go-0.16424th-0.03863th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 53.6%Rush 46.4%
Havoc/Game
15.2
Havoc Rate
21.6%
TO Margin
+0.9
Explosive/G
14.9
Yards/Game
433.9
Pts/Drive
2.16
3rd Down%
34.6%
3&Out%
24.0%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 10 games — LSU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLSUOpponents
Scoring
Points320349
Points / Game32.034.9
First Downs
Total234219
Rushing7787
Passing145120
Penalty1212
Rushing
Attempts365346
Yards1,2171,690
Yards / Carry3.34.9
Yards / Game121.7169.0
Touchdowns918
Passing
Attempts421332
Completions247198
Completion %58.7%59.6%
Yards3,1223,230
Yards / Attempt7.49.7
Touchdowns2424
Interceptions913
Passer Rating135.50157.39
Total Offense
Plays786678
Yards4,3394,920
Yards / Play5.57.3
Yards / Game433.9492.0
Punt Returns
Returns1310
Yards12277
Average9.47.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1510
Yards346344
Average23.134.4
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts5944
Yards2,5931,964
Average43.944.6
Interception Returns
Returns139
Yards258141
Touchdowns41
Fumbles
Fumbles1213
Lost49
Penalties
Penalties6156
Yards462435
Yards / Game46.243.5
Time of Possession
Per Game31:2428:36
Third Downs
Attempts156126
Conversions5447
Conversion %34.6%37.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1712
Conversions126
Conversion %70.6%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips3443
Scores (TD + FG)2835
Score %82.4%81.4%
Touchdowns1826
TD %52.9%60.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2119
Made1812
Pct85.7%63.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3644
Made3643
Pct100.0%97.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts21
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →