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SYR
Syracuse
OrangeBalancedAtlantic Coast Conference5-7#89 (-5.72)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
34· DOverall
Offense
38· DRating
27· DPer play
18· DConsistency
3· FBig plays
Defense
31· DRating
41· CPer play
47· CConsistency
Situational
21· DRed-zone O
19· DRed-zone D
60· C3rd down O
69· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.024
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.043
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.059
Defensive EPA/play
+0.025
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.5%
Def Success Rate
45.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.085
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.167
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.00
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.85
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.30
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.51
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
+0.15
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#89
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#64
recruiting 25 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Syracuse ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense40th
Opp-adjusted defense33th
Offensive EPA/play27th
Defensive EPA/play41th
Offensive success rate33th
Explosiveness3th
Defensive havoc57th
Points per drive40th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Colorado State2024OA -0.029 / +0.001similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, run defense3462Western Michigan2017OA -0.044 / -0.053similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, defensive success rate3423Maryland2025OA -0.071 / +0.010similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, TD drive rate3414Western Kentucky2018OA -0.103 / +0.001similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, pass defense3375LSU2020OA -0.020 / -0.012similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, takeaway rate332
2019 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Liberty | 24-0 | W | -19.5 | W | 69 | U |
| 2 | @ Maryland | 20-63 | L | +1.0 | L | 59 | O |
| 3 | vs Clemson | 6-41 | L | +28.0 | L | 63 | U |
| 4 | vs Western Michigan | 52-33 | W | -3.5 | W | 67.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Holy Cross | 41-3 | W | -40.0 | L | 55 | U |
| 7 | @ NC State | 10-16 | L | +4.5 | L | 56 | U |
| 8 | vs Pittsburgh | 20-27 | L | +3.5 | L | 52.5 | U |
| 9 | @ Florida State | 17-35 | L | +12.0 | L | 60 | U |
| 10 | vs Boston College | 27-58 | L | -3.0 | L | 59 | O |
| 12 | @ Duke | 49-6 | W | +8.5 | W | 49.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Louisville | 34-56 | L | +7.5 | L | 64.5 | O |
| 14 | vs Wake Forest | 39-30 | W | +6.5 | W | 68 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS2-6
Last 5 ATS
LLWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.041 | 31th | +0.000 | 49th |
| Red Zone | -0.185 | 22th | +0.110 | 20th |
| Third Down | +0.083 | 60th | -0.062 | 70th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.060 | 25th | +0.027 | 42th |
| First Half | -0.123 | 13th | +0.059 | 28th |
| Second Half | +0.046 | 64th | -0.067 | 78th |
| Early Downs | -0.041 | 31th | +0.072 | 14th |
| Passing Downs | +0.008 | 49th | -0.092 | 79th |
| Standard Downs | -0.071 | 21th | +0.047 | 28th |
| Goal to Go | -0.328 | 14th | +0.046 | 38th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 44.9%Rush 55.1%
Havoc/Game
15.3
Havoc Rate
19.0%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
12.2
Yards/Game
394.6
Pts/Drive
2.00
3rd Down%
38.0%
3&Out%
25.9%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 12 games — Syracuse vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Syracuse | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 339 | 368 |
| Points / Game | 28.3 | 30.7 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 239 | 283 |
| Rushing | 99 | 119 |
| Passing | 117 | 137 |
| Penalty | 23 | 27 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 501 | 493 |
| Yards | 1,848 | 2,419 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.7 | 4.9 |
| Yards / Game | 154.0 | 201.6 |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 26 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 408 | 425 |
| Completions | 250 | 227 |
| Completion % | 61.3% | 53.4% |
| Yards | 2,887 | 3,150 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.1 | 7.4 |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 21 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 13 |
| Passer Rating | 135.88 | 125.86 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 909 | 918 |
| Yards | 4,735 | 5,569 |
| Yards / Play | 5.2 | 6.1 |
| Yards / Game | 394.6 | 464.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 10 |
| Yards | 137 | 17 |
| Average | 8.6 | 1.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 34 | 19 |
| Yards | 649 | 460 |
| Average | 19.1 | 24.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 69 | 62 |
| Yards | 3,026 | 2,615 |
| Average | 43.9 | 42.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 7 |
| Yards | 163 | 16 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 13 | 17 |
| Lost | 9 | 12 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 107 | 72 |
| Yards | 887 | 625 |
| Yards / Game | 73.9 | 52.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:19 | 30:41 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 205 | 192 |
| Conversions | 78 | 82 |
| Conversion % | 38.0% | 42.7% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 28 | 19 |
| Conversions | 11 | 7 |
| Conversion % | 39.3% | 36.8% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 46 | 42 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 35 | 34 |
| Score % | 76.1% | 81.0% |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 28 |
| TD % | 52.2% | 66.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 18 |
| Made | 18 | 14 |
| Pct | 85.7% | 77.8% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 40 | 44 |
| Made | 39 | 42 |
| Pct | 97.5% | 95.5% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 3 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.