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PUR
Purdue
BoilermakersPass-HeavyBig Ten Conference9-4#54 (+2.48)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
60· COverall
Offense
69· CRating
62· CPer play
78· BConsistency
20· DBig plays
Defense
77· BRating
78· BPer play
65· CConsistency
Situational
16· DRed-zone O
51· CRed-zone D
57· C3rd down O
83· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.134
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.095
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.042
Defensive EPA/play
-0.071
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.5%
Def Success Rate
43.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.114
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.134
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.27
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.34
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.47
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.33
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-1.09
own return game
Return Defense
+0.54
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#54
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#66
model 12 higher
Recruiting Rank
#35
recruiting 19 spots higher
11 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Purdue ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense92th
Opp-adjusted defense88th
Offensive EPA/play62th
Defensive EPA/play79th
Offensive success rate81th
Explosiveness20th
Defensive havoc62th
Points per drive54th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Western Kentucky2019OA -0.013 / +0.057similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, run defense4022Middle Tennessee2018OA +0.025 / +0.049similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, turnover rate3443Michigan2019OA +0.070 / +0.125similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, pass defense3344Clemson2025OA +0.079 / +0.044similar: offensive EPA, run defense, offensive success rate3315Troy2020OA -0.011 / +0.020similar: takeaway rate, run defense, TD drive rate331
2021 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Oregon State | 30-21 | W | -7.0 | W | 68.5 | U |
| 2 | @ UConn | 49-0 | W | -32.5 | W | 56 | U |
| 3 | @ Notre Dame | 13-27 | L | +7.0 | L | 58.25 | U |
| 4 | vs Illinois | 13-9 | W | -10.5 | L | - | - |
| 5 | vs Minnesota | 13-20 | L | -2.5 | L | 47.5 | U |
| 7 | @ Iowa | 24-7 | W | +11.5 | W | 43.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Wisconsin | 13-30 | L | +3.0 | L | 40 | O |
| 9 | @ Nebraska | 28-23 | W | +7.5 | W | 52.5 | U |
| 10 | vs Michigan State | 40-29 | W | +3.0 | W | 53.5 | O |
| 11 | @ Ohio State | 31-59 | L | +20.0 | L | 61.5 | O |
| 12 | @ Northwestern | 32-14 | W | -11.0 | W | 47.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Indiana | 44-7 | W | -15.0 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 18 | vs Tennessee | 48-45 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS4-2
Underdog ATS4-3
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.071 | 80th | -0.078 | 82th |
| Red Zone | -0.186 | 17th | -0.043 | 51th |
| Third Down | +0.110 | 57th | -0.131 | 84th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.042 | 61th | -0.075 | 78th |
| First Half | +0.057 | 70th | -0.083 | 74th |
| Second Half | +0.086 | 86th | -0.072 | 73th |
| Early Downs | +0.064 | 79th | +0.033 | 29th |
| Passing Downs | +0.144 | 89th | -0.216 | 93th |
| Standard Downs | +0.035 | 61th | -0.003 | 49th |
| Goal to Go | -0.144 | 32th | +0.394 | 5th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 59.5%Rush 40.5%
Havoc/Game
13.3
Havoc Rate
19.5%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
15.1
Yards/Game
439.1
Pts/Drive
2.27
3rd Down%
43.9%
3&Out%
17.1%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 13 games — Purdue vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Purdue | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 378 | 291 |
| Points / Game | 29.1 | 22.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 312 | 239 |
| Rushing | 66 | 108 |
| Passing | 221 | 110 |
| Penalty | 25 | 21 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 392 | 483 |
| Yards | 1,092 | 2,035 |
| Yards / Carry | 2.8 | 4.2 |
| Yards / Game | 84.0 | 156.5 |
| Touchdowns | 7 | 18 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 575 | 374 |
| Completions | 407 | 222 |
| Completion % | 70.8% | 59.4% |
| Yards | 4,616 | 2,713 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.0 | 7.3 |
| Touchdowns | 35 | 18 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 13 |
| Passer Rating | 154.13 | 129.22 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 967 | 857 |
| Yards | 5,708 | 4,748 |
| Yards / Play | 5.9 | 5.5 |
| Yards / Game | 439.1 | 365.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 13 |
| Yards | 123 | 83 |
| Average | 6.2 | 6.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 18 | 34 |
| Yards | 223 | 676 |
| Average | 12.4 | 19.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 52 | 63 |
| Yards | 1,992 | 2,705 |
| Average | 38.3 | 42.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 12 |
| Yards | 107 | 60 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 11 | 19 |
| Lost | 7 | 4 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 58 | 77 |
| Yards | 557 | 699 |
| Yards / Game | 42.8 | 53.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:57 | 28:03 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 187 | 178 |
| Conversions | 82 | 66 |
| Conversion % | 43.9% | 37.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 22 |
| Conversions | 8 | 8 |
| Conversion % | 53.3% | 36.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 57 | 45 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 49 | 34 |
| Score % | 86.0% | 75.6% |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 24 |
| TD % | 47.4% | 53.3% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 29 | 21 |
| Made | 24 | 13 |
| Pct | 82.8% | 61.9% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 42 | 34 |
| Made | 40 | 34 |
| Pct | 95.2% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 2 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.