Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
SJSU

San José State

SpartansBalanced
Mountain West Conference7-5#91 (-2.56)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

33· DOverall
Offense
47· CRating
67· CPer play
56· CConsistency
69· CBig plays
Defense
55· CRating
71· BPer play
49· CConsistency
Situational
39· DRed-zone O
86· BRed-zone D
54· C3rd down O
21· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.004
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.025
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.044
Defensive EPA/play
-0.086
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.8%
Def Success Rate
45.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.130
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.013
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.30

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-2.63
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.22
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.97
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.88
own return game
Return Defense
+0.44
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#91
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#36
market 55 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 16 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where San José State ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
50th
Opp-adjusted defense
41th
Offensive EPA/play
68th
Defensive EPA/play
72th
Offensive success rate
56th
Explosiveness
70th
Defensive havoc
84th
Points per drive
58th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Iowa State2017OA +0.100 / +0.099similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, turnover rate3942Miami (OH)2021OA -0.032 / +0.021similar: pass defense, havoc rate, defensive success rate3403Stanford2018OA +0.030 / +0.004similar: pass defense, passing offense, TD drive rate3404North Texas2018OA -0.014 / -0.020similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, defensive EPA3365Texas2018OA +0.090 / +0.028similar: turnover rate, passing offense, defensive success rate335

2022 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Portland State21-17W----
2@ Auburn16-24L+24.0W48.5U
4vs Western Michigan34-6W-6.5W49U
5@ Wyoming33-16W-6.5W51.5U
6vs UNLV40-7W----
7@ Fresno State10-17L-8.5L47U
9vs Nevada35-28W-24.5L44.5O
10vs Colorado State28-16W-24.0L45U
11@ San Diego State27-43L-2.5L41.5O
12@ Utah State31-35L-2.0L51O
13vs Hawai'i27-14W-15.0L57.5U
17vs Eastern Michigan27-41L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-7
36.4%
O/U Record
5-6
45.5%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS3-7
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off76thRush Off56thRed Zone Off39th3rd Down Off55thPass Def66thRush Def82thRed Zone Def87th3rd Down Def21th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.04267th-0.09080th
Red Zone-0.04239th-0.24187th
Third Down+0.09355th+0.22121th
No Garbage Time+0.02761th-0.08876th
First Half+0.00753th-0.11079th
Second Half+0.08079th-0.06973th
Early Downs+0.01362th-0.12989th
Passing Downs+0.12176th-0.05366th
Standard Downs+0.00456th-0.10882th
Goal to Go-0.11935th-0.60498th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 55.7%Rush 44.3%
Havoc/Game
15.1
Havoc Rate
21.4%
TO Margin
+0.9
Explosive/G
15.7
Yards/Game
368.3
Pts/Drive
2.30
3rd Down%
36.7%
3&Out%
16.3%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 12 games — San José State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSan José StateOpponents
Scoring
Points329264
Points / Game27.422.0
First Downs
Total243225
Rushing6992
Passing142117
Penalty3216
Rushing
Attempts343453
Yards1,1491,467
Yards / Carry3.33.2
Yards / Game95.8122.3
Touchdowns1915
Passing
Attempts431351
Completions260213
Completion %60.3%60.7%
Yards3,2702,612
Yards / Attempt7.67.4
Touchdowns2315
Interceptions714
Passer Rating138.42129.32
Total Offense
Plays774804
Yards4,4194,079
Yards / Play5.75.1
Yards / Game368.3339.9
Punt Returns
Returns68
Yards39105
Average6.513.1
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2237
Yards382570
Average17.415.4
Touchdowns02
Punting
Punts5455
Yards2,1392,307
Average39.641.9
Interception Returns
Returns147
Yards6742
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles619
Lost26
Penalties
Penalties6988
Yards582832
Yards / Game48.569.3
Time of Possession
Per Game28:3531:06
Third Downs
Attempts150170
Conversions5567
Conversion %36.7%39.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1726
Conversions816
Conversion %47.1%61.5%
Red Zone
Trips5239
Scores (TD + FG)4328
Score %82.7%71.8%
Touchdowns3122
TD %59.6%56.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1812
Made1210
Pct66.7%83.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4028
Made3728
Pct92.5%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts25
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →