Fourth Down Data
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UVA

Virginia

CavaliersBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference6-7#43 (+6.44)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

68· COverall
Offense
51· CRating
12· FPer play
17· DConsistency
15· DBig plays
Defense
73· BRating
63· CPer play
77· BConsistency
Situational
67· CRed-zone O
62· CRed-zone D
23· D3rd down O
71· B3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.067
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.061
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.136
Defensive EPA/play
-0.068
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.6%
Def Success Rate
42.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.068
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.186
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.68

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.62
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.89
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.65
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.12
own return game
Return Defense
-0.25
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#43
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#49
model 6 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Virginia ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
22th
Opp-adjusted defense
70th
Offensive EPA/play
12th
Defensive EPA/play
63th
Offensive success rate
16th
Explosiveness
15th
Defensive havoc
47th
Points per drive
19th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Troy2025OA -0.100 / +0.021similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate4272Northwestern2023OA -0.030 / +0.013similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, defensive EPA4043Baylor2020OA -0.052 / +0.028similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, rushing offense3954Western Kentucky2018OA -0.103 / +0.001similar: passing offense, pass defense, turnover rate3895Texas2017OA -0.139 / +0.201similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, passing offense374

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs William & Mary28-10W+2.5L51O
2vs Indiana17-34L+4.0L56.5U
3vs UConn38-18W-10.5W50O
4@ Boise State42-23W+13.5W50O
6vs Duke28-21W+1.0W52.5U
7@ North Carolina20-14W-3.0W53.5U
8vs Boston College10-41L-7.0L48.5O
9@ Pittsburgh14-31L+1.0L49U
10vs Georgia Tech40-36W+7.5W50.5O
11@ Louisville21-38L+13.5L66U
12@ Miami28-44L+20.0W49.5O
13vs Virginia Tech0-10L+7.0L48.5U
18@ Navy7-49L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS2-1
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
LWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off8thRush Off19thRed Zone Off68th3rd Down Off23thPass Def64thRush Def49thRed Zone Def62th3rd Down Def72th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.15211th-0.04456th
Red Zone+0.06868th-0.07762th
Third Down-0.23023th-0.17072th
No Garbage Time-0.13911th-0.06862th
First Half-0.17311th-0.11873th
Second Half-0.13118th+0.02929th
Early Downs-0.12213th-0.01747th
Passing Downs-0.2228th-0.07364th
Standard Downs-0.11319th-0.02849th
Goal to Go-0.04744th+0.03342th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 57.2%Rush 42.8%
Havoc/Game
12.4
Havoc Rate
17.7%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
13.3
Yards/Game
342.2
Pts/Drive
1.68
3rd Down%
39.2%
3&Out%
25.3%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Virginia vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatVirginiaOpponents
Scoring
Points293369
Points / Game22.528.4
First Downs
Total241245
Rushing78125
Passing141101
Penalty2219
Rushing
Attempts389557
Yards1,2162,591
Yards / Carry3.14.7
Yards / Game93.5199.3
Touchdowns1025
Passing
Attempts519322
Completions300172
Completion %57.8%53.4%
Yards3,2332,155
Yards / Attempt6.26.7
Touchdowns2518
Interceptions1115
Passer Rating121.79118.76
Total Offense
Plays908879
Yards4,4494,746
Yards / Play4.95.4
Yards / Game342.2365.1
Punt Returns
Returns2225
Yards98321
Average4.512.8
Touchdowns02
Kickoff Returns
Returns4135
Yards1,106856
Average27.024.5
Touchdowns20
Punting
Punts7871
Yards3,3152,768
Average42.539.0
Interception Returns
Returns1511
Yards154234
Touchdowns14
Fumbles
Fumbles2415
Lost83
Penalties
Penalties6366
Yards592589
Yards / Game45.545.3
Time of Possession
Per Game30:2829:32
Third Downs
Attempts209188
Conversions8269
Conversion %39.2%36.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2826
Conversions1115
Conversion %39.3%57.7%
Red Zone
Trips3344
Scores (TD + FG)2632
Score %78.8%72.7%
Touchdowns1827
TD %54.5%61.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1214
Made89
Pct66.7%64.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3745
Made3744
Pct100.0%97.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts14
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →