Fourth Down Data
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MRSH

Marshall

Thundering HerdRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference9-4#55 (+1.90)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

59· COverall
Offense
7· FRating
20· DPer play
34· DConsistency
32· DBig plays
Defense
98· A+Rating
98· A+Per play
98· A+Consistency
Situational
9· FRed-zone O
67· CRed-zone D
60· C3rd down O
99· A+3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.104
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.202
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.119
Defensive EPA/play
-0.290
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.1%
Def Success Rate
37.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.171
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.149
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.53

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.52
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.14
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.05
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.18
own return game
Return Defense
+0.75
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#55
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#28
market 27 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 20 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Marshall ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
18th
Opp-adjusted defense
99th
Offensive EPA/play
20th
Defensive EPA/play
99th
Offensive success rate
34th
Explosiveness
32th
Defensive havoc
93th
Points per drive
16th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Northern Illinois2017OA -0.083 / +0.118similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, havoc rate3842NC State2023OA -0.033 / +0.114similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, offensive success rate3723Illinois2022OA -0.001 / +0.183similar: pass defense, run defense, defensive EPA3704Clemson2021OA -0.044 / +0.202similar: defensive success rate, run defense, offensive EPA3695Toledo2025OA -0.058 / +0.113similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, defensive success rate351

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Norfolk State55-3W-39.5W59.75U
2@ Notre Dame26-21W+20.5W50U
3@ Bowling Green31-34L-16.5L50.5O
4@ Troy7-16L-3.5L52U
5vs Gardner-Webb28-7W-31.0L56U
7vs Louisiana13-23L----
8@ James Madison26-12W+12.5W51U
9vs Coastal Carolina13-24L-2.5L55.5U
10@ Old Dominion12-0W-3.0W46.5U
11vs App State28-21W+1.0W47.5O
12@ Georgia Southern23-10W-4.5W54U
13vs Georgia State28-23W-6.0L45O
16@ UConn28-14W-12.0W41O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
4-9
30.8%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS5-2
Favorite ATS4-6
Underdog ATS3-0
Last 5 ATS
WWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off16thRush Off22thRed Zone Off9th3rd Down Off61thPass Def98thRush Def98thRed Zone Def68th3rd Down Def100th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.11619th-0.27199th
Red Zone-0.2729th-0.13568th
Third Down+0.12061th-0.532100th
No Garbage Time-0.11720th-0.29199th
First Half-0.11324th-0.34299th
Second Half-0.11919th-0.19997th
Early Downs-0.09619th-0.17596th
Passing Downs-0.14516th-0.33798th
Standard Downs-0.10022th-0.22598th
Goal to Go-0.20423th-0.34387th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 38.1%Rush 61.9%
Havoc/Game
16.0
Havoc Rate
23.7%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
15.9
Yards/Game
397.9
Pts/Drive
1.53
3rd Down%
37.7%
3&Out%
25.9%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — Marshall vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMarshallOpponents
Scoring
Points318208
Points / Game24.516.0
First Downs
Total272199
Rushing15268
Passing101106
Penalty1925
Rushing
Attempts597419
Yards2,6771,209
Yards / Carry4.52.9
Yards / Game205.993.0
Touchdowns2010
Passing
Attempts367421
Completions225217
Completion %61.3%51.5%
Yards2,4962,620
Yards / Attempt6.86.2
Touchdowns1612
Interceptions1018
Passer Rating127.37104.67
Total Offense
Plays964840
Yards5,1733,829
Yards / Play5.44.6
Yards / Game397.9294.5
Punt Returns
Returns2215
Yards15889
Average7.25.9
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2017
Yards386349
Average19.320.5
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts8193
Yards3,1593,611
Average39.038.8
Interception Returns
Returns1810
Yards161106
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles1713
Lost911
Penalties
Penalties9473
Yards859671
Yards / Game66.151.6
Time of Possession
Per Game31:5528:05
Third Downs
Attempts207187
Conversions7844
Conversion %37.7%23.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2126
Conversions612
Conversion %28.6%46.2%
Red Zone
Trips4930
Scores (TD + FG)3523
Score %71.4%76.7%
Touchdowns2515
TD %51.0%50.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2013
Made1312
Pct65.0%92.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3921
Made3720
Pct94.9%95.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts13
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →