Fourth Down Data
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IOWA

Iowa

HawkeyesRun-Heavy
Big Ten Conference8-5#20 (+6.73)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

85· BOverall
Offense
46· CRating
25· DPer play
22· DConsistency
12· FBig plays
Defense
94· ARating
92· A-Per play
50· CConsistency
Situational
42· CRed-zone O
44· CRed-zone D
7· F3rd down O
97· A+3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.019
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.053
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.056
Defensive EPA/play
-0.140
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.4%
Def Success Rate
45.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.084
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.132
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.14

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.79
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.08
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.53
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.27
own return game
Return Defense
-0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#20
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 6 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#38
model 18 higher
Recruiting Rank
#30
model 10 spots higher
15 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Iowa ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
28th
Opp-adjusted defense
90th
Offensive EPA/play
25th
Defensive EPA/play
93th
Offensive success rate
22th
Explosiveness
12th
Defensive havoc
64th
Points per drive
44th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Virginia Tech2024OA +0.002 / +0.048similar: offensive success rate, takeaway rate, rushing offense3822Sam Houston2024OA -0.024 / +0.065similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, pass defense3813Wyoming2019OA -0.056 / +0.057similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, havoc rate3534Wyoming2017OA -0.152 / +0.087similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, pass defense3525San Diego State2025OA -0.102 / +0.118similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA352

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Illinois State40-0W-22.5W40.5U
2vs Iowa State19-20L-2.5L36.5O
3vs Troy38-21W-22.5L39O
4@ Minnesota31-14W-2.5W35.5O
6@ Ohio State7-35L+18.5L45U
7vs Washington40-16W-2.5W41.5O
8@ Michigan State20-32L-6.0L41O
9vs Northwestern40-14W-14.0W37.75O
10vs Wisconsin42-10W-3.0W41O
11@ UCLA17-20L----
13@ Maryland29-13W-6.5W45.5U
14vs Nebraska13-10W----
18@ Missouri24-27L+2.5L40.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
8-5
61.5%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS6-5
Underdog ATS0-2
Last 5 ATS
LWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off31thRush Off28thRed Zone Off43th3rd Down Off7thPass Def97thRush Def81thRed Zone Def44th3rd Down Def98th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.04128th-0.13293th
Red Zone-0.03443th+0.03244th
Third Down-0.1997th-0.22898th
No Garbage Time-0.05326th-0.13793th
First Half-0.1975th-0.14892th
Second Half+0.12790th-0.11689th
Early Downs+0.01363th-0.11887th
Passing Downs-0.03431th-0.21797th
Standard Downs-0.04528th-0.08881th
Goal to Go-0.07234th+0.18713th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 34.2%Rush 65.8%
Havoc/Game
12.7
Havoc Rate
19.6%
TO Margin
+0.9
Explosive/G
11.5
Yards/Game
328.8
Pts/Drive
2.14
3rd Down%
41.3%
3&Out%
26.2%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — Iowa vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatIowaOpponents
Scoring
Points360232
Points / Game27.717.8
First Downs
Total217230
Rushing11793
Passing82123
Penalty1814
Rushing
Attempts501406
Yards2,5641,499
Yards / Carry5.13.7
Yards / Game197.2115.3
Touchdowns304
Passing
Attempts260420
Completions163260
Completion %62.7%61.9%
Yards1,7112,640
Yards / Attempt6.66.3
Touchdowns1020
Interceptions816
Passer Rating124.51122.80
Total Offense
Plays761826
Yards4,2754,139
Yards / Play5.65.0
Yards / Game328.8318.4
Punt Returns
Returns278
Yards327152
Average12.119.0
Touchdowns12
Kickoff Returns
Returns2923
Yards791419
Average27.318.2
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts6469
Yards2,8222,889
Average44.141.9
Interception Returns
Returns168
Yards140169
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1318
Lost48
Penalties
Penalties4174
Yards388581
Yards / Game29.844.7
Time of Possession
Per Game29:1830:43
Third Downs
Attempts167173
Conversions6963
Conversion %41.3%36.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts813
Conversions37
Conversion %37.5%53.8%
Red Zone
Trips4132
Scores (TD + FG)3726
Score %90.2%81.3%
Touchdowns2620
TD %63.4%62.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2321
Made2015
Pct87.0%71.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4025
Made4025
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts32
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →