Fourth Down Data
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WYO

Wyoming

CowboysBalanced
Mountain West Conference8-5#99 (-8.56)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

26· DOverall
Offense
7· FRating
7· FPer play
7· FConsistency
7· FBig plays
Defense
58· CRating
91· A-Per play
63· CConsistency
Situational
47· CRed-zone O
74· BRed-zone D
13· F3rd down O
91· A-3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.152
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.087
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.175
Defensive EPA/play
-0.176
lower = better
Off Success Rate
40.0%
Def Success Rate
43.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.002
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.025
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.69

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.51
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.20
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.24
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.27
own return game
Return Defense
+0.20
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#99
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 24 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Wyoming ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
6th
Opp-adjusted defense
79th
Offensive EPA/play
8th
Defensive EPA/play
92th
Offensive success rate
4th
Explosiveness
7th
Defensive havoc
77th
Points per drive
20th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Iowa2022OA -0.183 / +0.202similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA4572Miami (OH)2025OA -0.103 / +0.022similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, havoc rate3833Iowa2021OA -0.085 / +0.157similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, run defense3604NC State2023OA -0.033 / +0.114similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, takeaway rate3585Iowa2024OA -0.019 / +0.053similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, pass defense352

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Iowa3-24L-3.0W47O
2vs Gardner-Webb27-0W-38.5L--
3vs Oregon13-49L+14.0L66U
4vs Hawai'i28-21W-5.5W55U
5vs Texas State45-10W-16.5W45O
7@ Utah State28-23W-1.0W50O
8@ Boise State14-24L+15.5W45U
9vs New Mexico42-3W-2.5W46.5U
10vs Colorado State16-13W+4.0W48.5U
11@ Air Force28-14W+2.5W50U
12vs Fresno State7-13L+2.0L39.5U
13@ San José State17-20L-18.5L48U
17vs Central Michigan37-14W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
3-8
27.3%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS5-3
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS5-2
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off5thRush Off14thRed Zone Off47th3rd Down Off14thPass Def92thRush Def88thRed Zone Def75th3rd Down Def92th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1907th-0.17592th
Red Zone-0.01847th-0.13475th
Third Down-0.33714th-0.32992th
No Garbage Time-0.1708th-0.17992th
First Half-0.2135th-0.20292th
Second Half-0.16511th-0.14683th
Early Downs-0.09326th-0.16292th
Passing Downs-0.2905th-0.20692th
Standard Downs-0.13214th-0.15888th
Goal to Go+0.06264th+0.03341th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.8%Rush 56.2%
Havoc/Game
15.5
Havoc Rate
21.0%
TO Margin
+1.8
Explosive/G
10.7
Yards/Game
286.0
Pts/Drive
1.69
3rd Down%
33.1%
3&Out%
30.8%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Wyoming vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWyomingOpponents
Scoring
Points305228
Points / Game23.517.5
First Downs
Total198244
Rushing76128
Passing10598
Penalty1718
Rushing
Attempts446599
Yards1,4142,084
Yards / Carry3.23.5
Yards / Game108.8160.3
Touchdowns1316
Passing
Attempts348334
Completions195189
Completion %56.0%56.6%
Yards2,3042,274
Yards / Attempt6.66.8
Touchdowns1811
Interceptions820
Passer Rating124.12112.67
Total Offense
Plays794933
Yards3,7184,358
Yards / Play4.74.7
Yards / Game286.0335.2
Punt Returns
Returns2325
Yards236118
Average10.34.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2333
Yards651682
Average28.320.7
Touchdowns20
Punting
Punts8865
Yards3,4292,892
Average39.044.5
Interception Returns
Returns208
Yards262134
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1227
Lost618
Penalties
Penalties5564
Yards522602
Yards / Game40.246.3
Time of Possession
Per Game27:3932:21
Third Downs
Attempts181205
Conversions6075
Conversion %33.1%36.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1426
Conversions915
Conversion %64.3%57.7%
Red Zone
Trips3434
Scores (TD + FG)3326
Score %97.1%76.5%
Touchdowns2118
TD %61.8%52.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1817
Made1513
Pct83.3%76.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3727
Made3627
Pct97.3%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →