Fourth Down Data
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RUTG

Rutgers

Scarlet KnightsRun-Heavy
Big Ten Conference7-6#56 (+1.41)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

59· COverall
Offense
39· DRating
27· DPer play
28· DConsistency
31· DBig plays
Defense
62· CRating
78· BPer play
58· CConsistency
Situational
38· DRed-zone O
35· DRed-zone D
61· C3rd down O
76· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.027
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.050
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.048
Defensive EPA/play
-0.054
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.8%
Def Success Rate
45.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.007
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.022
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.90

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.16
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.35
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.68
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.07
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#56
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#73
model 17 higher
Recruiting Rank
#43
recruiting 13 spots higher
8 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Rutgers ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
35th
Opp-adjusted defense
73th
Offensive EPA/play
27th
Defensive EPA/play
79th
Offensive success rate
33th
Explosiveness
31th
Defensive havoc
25th
Points per drive
33th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1San Diego State2025OA -0.102 / +0.118similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, takeaway rate3562Iowa2024OA -0.019 / +0.053similar: passing offense, turnover rate, pass defense3533Maryland2018OA -0.028 / +0.015similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3524Sam Houston2024OA -0.024 / +0.065similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, pass defense3435Kentucky2020OA -0.028 / +0.030similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, passing offense342

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Northwestern24-7W-6.0W39.5U
2vs Temple36-7W-8.0W44.5U
3vs Virginia Tech35-16W-6.5W37.5O
4@ Michigan7-31L+24.0P44U
5vs Wagner52-3W-46.5W53.5O
6@ Wisconsin13-24L+13.0W44U
7vs Michigan State27-24W-5.0L40.5O
8@ Indiana31-14W-5.0W40.5O
10vs Ohio State16-35L+18.5L42.5O
11@ Iowa0-22L+1.0L28.75U
12@ Penn State6-27L+20.5L41.5U
13vs Maryland24-42L+1.0L44O
18@ Miami31-24W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5-1
58.3%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS5-1
Underdog ATS2-4
Last 5 ATS
LLLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off36thRush Off29thRed Zone Off39th3rd Down Off61thPass Def95thRush Def51thRed Zone Def36th3rd Down Def77th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.03730th-0.06182th
Red Zone-0.05339th+0.04136th
Third Down+0.23961th+0.07577th
No Garbage Time-0.04728th-0.05479th
First Half-0.02836th-0.09485th
Second Half-0.04834th-0.02856th
Early Downs-0.12314th-0.08073th
Passing Downs+0.00736th-0.14795th
Standard Downs-0.05929th-0.02051th
Goal to Go-0.3246th+0.10339th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 36.3%Rush 63.7%
Havoc/Game
10.7
Havoc Rate
16.7%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
12.9
Yards/Game
306.2
Pts/Drive
1.90
3rd Down%
36.9%
3&Out%
24.6%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Rutgers vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatRutgersOpponents
Scoring
Points302276
Points / Game23.221.2
First Downs
Total227239
Rushing126117
Passing8498
Penalty1724
Rushing
Attempts517444
Yards2,1931,783
Yards / Carry4.24.0
Yards / Game168.7137.2
Touchdowns2416
Passing
Attempts294373
Completions142223
Completion %48.3%59.8%
Yards1,7882,292
Yards / Attempt6.16.1
Touchdowns1016
Interceptions89
Passer Rating105.17120.73
Total Offense
Plays811817
Yards3,9814,075
Yards / Play4.95.0
Yards / Game306.2313.5
Punt Returns
Returns64
Yards1225
Average2.06.3
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns514
Yards165222
Average33.015.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5754
Yards2,2582,182
Average39.640.4
Interception Returns
Returns98
Yards52315
Touchdowns03
Fumbles
Fumbles1017
Lost59
Penalties
Penalties6652
Yards587480
Yards / Game45.236.9
Time of Possession
Per Game31:4728:13
Third Downs
Attempts168169
Conversions6266
Conversion %36.9%39.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2529
Conversions1615
Conversion %64.0%51.7%
Red Zone
Trips4445
Scores (TD + FG)3834
Score %86.4%75.6%
Touchdowns2827
TD %63.6%60.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1916
Made1511
Pct78.9%68.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3433
Made3333
Pct97.1%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts32
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →