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UK
Kentucky
WildcatsRun-HeavySoutheastern Conference5-6#70 (-0.56)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
46· COverall
Offense
18· DRating
31· DPer play
65· CConsistency
15· DBig plays
Defense
68· CRating
71· BPer play
33· DConsistency
Situational
7· FRed-zone O
53· CRed-zone D
19· D3rd down O
76· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.028
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.030
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.035
Defensive EPA/play
-0.045
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.0%
Def Success Rate
50.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.010
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.040
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.96
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.39
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.74
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.03
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.06
own return game
Return Defense
-0.45
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#70
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#76
model 6 higher
Recruiting Rank
#19
recruiting 51 spots higher
13 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Kentucky ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense20th
Opp-adjusted defense77th
Offensive EPA/play31th
Defensive EPA/play72th
Offensive success rate53th
Explosiveness15th
Defensive havoc20th
Points per drive34th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Rutgers2023OA -0.027 / +0.050similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, passing offense3422Virginia Tech2021OA -0.008 / +0.025similar: offensive EPA, run defense, TD drive rate3393Utah State2017OA -0.063 / +0.074similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, havoc rate3384Minnesota2017OA -0.088 / +0.031similar: passing offense, pass defense, defensive EPA3375UConn2022OA -0.103 / -0.053similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate335
2020 Schedule & Results
11 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | @ Auburn | 13-29 | L | +7.5 | L | 49.5 | U |
| 5 | vs Ole Miss | 41-42 | L | -6.0 | L | 62 | O |
| 6 | vs Mississippi State | 24-2 | W | -2.0 | W | 57.5 | U |
| 7 | @ Tennessee | 34-7 | W | +6.0 | W | 46 | U |
| 8 | @ Missouri | 10-20 | L | -5.5 | L | 47 | U |
| 9 | vs Georgia | 3-14 | L | +17.0 | W | 42.5 | U |
| 11 | vs Vanderbilt | 38-35 | W | -17.0 | L | 42.5 | O |
| 12 | @ Alabama | 3-63 | L | +32.0 | L | 57.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Florida | 10-34 | L | +25.5 | W | 61.5 | U |
| 14 | vs South Carolina | 41-18 | W | -11.5 | W | 47.25 | O |
| 18 | vs NC State | 23-21 | W | -2.5 | L | 53.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-6
45.5%
O/U Record
4-7
36.4%
Straight Up
5-6
45.5%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS2-4
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
LLWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.064 | 20th | -0.013 | 64th |
| Red Zone | -0.305 | 7th | -0.017 | 53th |
| Third Down | -0.129 | 19th | -0.069 | 77th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.037 | 31th | -0.051 | 74th |
| First Half | +0.028 | 55th | -0.070 | 83th |
| Second Half | -0.172 | 9th | +0.038 | 48th |
| Early Downs | +0.028 | 63th | -0.068 | 77th |
| Passing Downs | -0.273 | 5th | +0.100 | 35th |
| Standard Downs | +0.032 | 64th | -0.065 | 77th |
| Goal to Go | -0.622 | 4th | -0.202 | 79th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 35.8%Rush 64.2%
Havoc/Game
10.6
Havoc Rate
15.0%
TO Margin
+0.9
Explosive/G
12.1
Yards/Game
318.0
Pts/Drive
1.96
3rd Down%
36.6%
3&Out%
20.5%
Team Statistics
2020 season totals across 11 games — Kentucky vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Kentucky | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 240 | 285 |
| Points / Game | 21.8 | 25.9 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 191 | 243 |
| Rushing | 110 | 99 |
| Passing | 64 | 121 |
| Penalty | 17 | 23 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 436 | 408 |
| Yards | 2,162 | 1,717 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.0 | 4.2 |
| Yards / Game | 196.5 | 156.1 |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 18 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 243 | 356 |
| Completions | 145 | 235 |
| Completion % | 59.7% | 66.0% |
| Yards | 1,336 | 2,471 |
| Yards / Attempt | 5.5 | 6.9 |
| Touchdowns | 7 | 18 |
| Interceptions | 5 | 16 |
| Passer Rating | 111.24 | 132.01 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 679 | 764 |
| Yards | 3,498 | 4,188 |
| Yards / Play | 5.2 | 5.5 |
| Yards / Game | 318.0 | 380.7 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 6 | 13 |
| Yards | 62 | 174 |
| Average | 10.3 | 13.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 15 |
| Yards | 298 | 375 |
| Average | 18.6 | 25.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 52 | 41 |
| Yards | 2,372 | 1,841 |
| Average | 45.6 | 44.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 4 |
| Yards | 252 | 97 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 13 | 13 |
| Lost | 7 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 63 | 62 |
| Yards | 615 | 521 |
| Yards / Game | 55.9 | 47.4 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:04 | 28:56 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 142 | 141 |
| Conversions | 52 | 60 |
| Conversion % | 36.6% | 42.6% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 24 |
| Conversions | 8 | 17 |
| Conversion % | 47.1% | 70.8% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 33 | 44 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 28 | 33 |
| Score % | 84.8% | 75.0% |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 29 |
| TD % | 51.5% | 65.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 12 |
| Made | 13 | 5 |
| Pct | 86.7% | 41.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 28 | 36 |
| Made | 27 | 36 |
| Pct | 96.4% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 2 |
| Made | 0 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.